FC Viktoria Plzeň vs. AC Sparta Praha: O/U 2.5
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 68¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 20%
$3.4K
-$435.42
Research grade
NeutralOver at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FE ferrariChampions2026 | Overavg 56¢ | $3.8K | $2.1K | -$19.05 | 46% 33216-38836 (72052) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 44¢ | $951.69 | $704.13 | -$247.56 | 51% 46870-44196 (91066) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 43.2¢ | $694.88 | $525.6 | -$169.28 | 50% 32540-32687 (65227) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 44¢ | $100 | $44.5 | +$0.5 | 59% 52299-37045 (89344) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $5 | $2.23 | -$0.03 | 52% 9470-8570 (18040) |
Invested
$3,821.21
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$19.05
Record
46%
33216-38836 (72052)
Invested
$951.69
Value
$704.13
PnL
-$247.56
Record
51%
46870-44196 (91066)
Invested
$694.88
Value
$525.6
PnL
-$169.28
Record
50%
32540-32687 (65227)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$100
Value
$44.5
PnL
+$0.5
Record
59%
52299-37045 (89344)
Invested
$5
Value
$2.23
PnL
-$0.03
Record
52%
9470-8570 (18040)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.