SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden vs. PSV: O/U 3.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 8

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$11.6K

Combined PnL

-$794.88

Smart Money Entry

60.1¢ → 100¢

+66% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$10.7K

Total Shares11,528

Combined PnL+$3.8K

Under5 traders

Total Value$830.56

Total Shares13,076

Combined PnL$-4.6K

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Overavg 57.4¢	$10.6K	$9.9K	+$3.8K	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
KY Kyn008CTR	Underavg 42.3¢	$5.2K	$784.69	$-4.4K	48% 313-335 (648)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 94.8¢	$784.9	$735.06	-$9.41	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 58.5¢	$116.96	$109.53	+$41.15	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 30.2¢	$372.97	$23.87	-$88.75	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 29.4¢	$308.7	$19.6	-$71.28	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
dips.<$100	Overavg 93¢	$20	$18.63	+$0.03	46% 12026-13917 (25943)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 56¢	$5	$4.67	+$1.87	52% 9470-8570 (18040)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 5.4¢	$20	$1.28	+$0.2	46% 30563-35669 (66232)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 43.3¢	$17.28	$1.11	-$6.37	51% 27916-27361 (55277)

ferrariChampions2026

Over

Invested

$10,601.2

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$3.8K

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

Kyn008CTR

Under

Invested

$5,233.27

Value

$784.69

PnL

$-4.4K

Record

48%

313-335 (648)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$784.9

Value

$735.06

PnL

-$9.41

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$116.96

Value

$109.53

PnL

+$41.15

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$372.97

Value

$23.87

PnL

-$88.75

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$308.7

Value

$19.6

PnL

-$71.28

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

dips.<$100

Over

Invested

$20

Value

$18.63

PnL

+$0.03

Record

46%

12026-13917 (25943)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$4.67

PnL

+$1.87

Record

52%

9470-8570 (18040)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20

Value

$1.28

PnL

+$0.2

Record

46%

30563-35669 (66232)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$17.28

Value

$1.11

PnL

-$6.37

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.