Orleans: Luka Pavlovic vs Hugo Grenier

17 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Hugo Grenier (74%) · Hugo Grenier at 100¢ · $121K held · ends Nov 15

Luka Pavlovic<1¢Hugo Grenier>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Hugo Grenier

Consensus Traders

Hugo Grenier 74%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$121.3K

Combined PnL

$29.7K

Smart Money Entry

56.6¢ → 100¢

+77% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralHugo Grenier at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hugo Grenier

17 of 23 top traders (74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Luka Pavlovic0%

Hugo Grenier100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Luka Pavlovic6 traders

Total Value$58.0K

Total Shares75,750

Combined PnL+$15.4K

Hugo Grenier17 traders

Total Value$63.2K

Total Shares80,100

Combined PnL+$14.4K

Luka Pavlovic — 26%Hugo Grenier — 74%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO robustmstCTR	Luka Pavlovicavg 53.6¢	$39.1K	$55.1K	+$16.0K	48% 121-132 (253)
RN1	Hugo Grenieravg 65.8¢	$17.3K	$25.5K	+$8.2K	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
PA Paul973973	Hugo Grenieravg 99.2¢	$9.6K	$9.6K	-$49.53	89% 1104-142 (1246)
65 6512395314597884	Hugo Grenieravg 47.8¢	$5.5K	$8.1K	+$2.6K	51% 5614-5443 (11057)
FL Flaznorp	Hugo Grenieravg 67.6¢	$3.1K	$4.6K	+$785.06	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
VE Venusian	Hugo Grenieravg 21.3¢	$921.7	$4.2K	+$3.3K	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
38 38791873984189CTR	Luka Pavlovicavg 69.5¢	$5.8K	$2.8K	-$590.24	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
LI Limousin	Hugo Grenieravg 36.8¢	$1.4K	$2.7K	+$1.3K	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Hugo Grenieravg 47¢	$4.7K	$2.5K	$-2.3K	53% 6638-5848 (12486)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Hugo Grenieravg 42.9¢	$7.7K	$2.0K	$-1.3K	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
TH thestingsnake	Hugo Grenieravg 41.2¢	$767.49	$1.9K	+$1.1K	60% 4593-3091 (7684)
MA MadridTime	Hugo Grenieravg 48.6¢	$550.26	$1.1K	+$581.61	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
LI LightParadox	Hugo Grenieravg 20¢	$2.9K	$691.94	+$94.67	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Hugo Grenieravg 15¢	$1.5K	$371.35	+$143.82	46% 1957-2309 (4266)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Luka Pavlovicavg 79.7¢	$271.58	$131.77	-$20.52	53% 15441-13720 (29161)
└ Luka Pavlovic leg	Luka Pavlovicavg 79.7¢	$101.98	$96.57	-$5.41
└ Hugo Grenier leg	Hugo Grenieravg 35¢	$50.3	$35.2	-$15.1
tradecraft	Hugo Grenieravg 19¢	$253.37	$62.08	+$13.94	51% 6679-6369 (13048)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Luka Pavlovicavg 53¢	$37.27	$53.09	+$15.82	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
VeryLucky888CTR	Luka Pavlovicavg 54¢	$445	$33.53	+$9.23	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Hugo Grenieravg 45¢	$90	$30.3	-$16.65	52% 6029-5557 (11586)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Hugo Grenieravg 21.3¢	$19.85	$18.6	-$1.26	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
EF efntrick<$100	Hugo Grenieravg 44¢	$13.2	$7.65	-$5.55	49% 3711-3940 (7651)
TRCM<$100	Hugo Grenieravg 26¢	$5	$1.18	-$0.13	55% 4121-3315 (7436)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Luka Pavlovicavg 50¢	$59.28	$0.06	-$59.22	54% 10221-8698 (18919)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Luka Pavlovicavg 14¢	$6.86	$0.02	-$6.84	53% 6776-5929 (12705)

robustmstCTR

Luka Pavlovic

Invested

$39,096.2

Value

$55.1K

PnL

+$16.0K

Record

48%

121-132 (253)

RN1

Hugo Grenier

Invested

$17,275.92

Value

$25.5K

PnL

+$8.2K

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

Paul973973

Hugo Grenier

Invested

$9,625

Value

$9.6K

PnL

-$49.53

Record

89%

1104-142 (1246)

6512395314597884

Hugo Grenier

Invested

$5,516.39

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

51%

5614-5443 (11057)

Flaznorp

Hugo Grenier

Invested

$3,107.24

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$785.06

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

Venusian

Hugo Grenier

Invested

$921.7

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

38791873984189CTR

Luka Pavlovic

Invested

$5,830.55

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$590.24

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Limousin

Hugo Grenier

Invested

$1,363.63

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Hugo Grenier

Invested

$4,719.75

Value

$2.5K

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

53%

6638-5848 (12486)

ferrariChampions2026

Hugo Grenier

Invested

$7,670.58

Value

$2.0K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

thestingsnake

Hugo Grenier

Invested

$767.49

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

60%

4593-3091 (7684)

MadridTime

Hugo Grenier

Invested

$550.26

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$581.61

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

LightParadox

Hugo Grenier

Invested

$2,854.23

Value

$691.94

PnL

+$94.67

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Hugo Grenier

Invested

$1,515.7

Value

$371.35

PnL

+$143.82

Record

46%

1957-2309 (4266)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Luka Pavlovic

Invested

$271.58

Value

$131.77

PnL

-$20.52

Record

53%

15441-13720 (29161)

Both legs:

Luka Pavlovic$101.9879.7¢-$5.41

Hugo Grenier$50.335¢-$15.1

tradecraft

Hugo Grenier

Invested

$253.37

Value

$62.08

PnL

+$13.94

Record

51%

6679-6369 (13048)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Luka Pavlovic

Invested

$37.27

Value

$53.09

PnL

+$15.82

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

VeryLucky888CTR

Luka Pavlovic

Invested

$445

Value

$33.53

PnL

+$9.23

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Hugo Grenier

Invested

$90

Value

$30.3

PnL

-$16.65

Record

52%

6029-5557 (11586)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Hugo Grenier

Invested

$19.85

Value

$18.6

PnL

-$1.26

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

efntrick<$100

Hugo Grenier

Invested

$13.2

Value

$7.65

PnL

-$5.55

Record

49%

3711-3940 (7651)

TRCM<$100

Hugo Grenier

Invested

Value

$1.18

PnL

-$0.13

Record

55%

4121-3315 (7436)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Luka Pavlovic

Invested

$59.28

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$59.22

Record

54%

10221-8698 (18919)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Luka Pavlovic

Invested

$6.86

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$6.84

Record

53%

6776-5929 (12705)

Research grade

NeutralHugo Grenier at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Hugo Grenier

17 of 23 top traders (74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hugo Grenier wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.