Giants vs. Eagles

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Giants (20%) · Giants at 63¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 8

Giants63¢Eagles37¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Giants

Consensus Traders

Giants 20%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$19.71

Smart Money Entry

62¢ → 62.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralGiants at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Giants

2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Giants63%

Eagles38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Giants2 traders

Total Value$848.75

Total Shares1,362

Combined PnL+$6.81

Eagles8 traders

Total Value$568.78

Total Shares1,525

Combined PnL-$26.52

Giants — 20%Eagles — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

59h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Giants. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleEagles 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpGiants 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrEagles 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedEagles 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Eagles 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN AnonymousUsername	Giantsavg 62¢	$536.19	$540.51	+$4.32	69% 7203-3187 (10390)
DA darkumbreon88	Giantsavg 62¢	$308.24	$308.24	+$2.49	64% 1958-1090 (3048)
RA rabbitfoot1CTR	Eaglesavg 38.7¢	$254.65	$243.42	-$11.23	54% 1220-1042 (2262)
VeryLucky888CTR	Eaglesavg 37¢	$100.23	$101.59	+$1.35	58% 46667-33629 (80296)
38 38791873984189CTR	Eaglesavg 39.8¢	$260.46	$99.46	-$10	48% 61036-65868 (126904)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Eaglesavg 41¢	$69.7	$62.9	-$6.8	53% 12487-11218 (23705)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Eaglesavg 37¢	$32.1	$32.1	+$0.43	51% 37659-36887 (74546)
IC ic4creamCTR<$100	Eaglesavg 38.7¢	$25.16	$24.05	-$0.33	56% 2770-2186 (4956)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Eaglesavg 36.6¢	$4.61	$4.66	+$0.05	58% 21143-15371 (36514)
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100	Eaglesavg 38¢	$0.61	$0.6	-$0.01	51% 3806-3729 (7535)

AnonymousUsername

Giants

Invested

$536.19

Value

$540.51

PnL

+$4.32

Record

69%

7203-3187 (10390)

darkumbreon88

Giants

Invested

$308.24

Value

$308.24

PnL

+$2.49

Record

64%

1958-1090 (3048)

rabbitfoot1CTR

Eagles

Invested

$254.65

Value

$243.42

PnL

-$11.23

Record

54%

1220-1042 (2262)

VeryLucky888CTR

Eagles

Invested

$100.23

Value

$101.59

PnL

+$1.35

Record

58%

46667-33629 (80296)

38791873984189CTR

Eagles

Invested

$260.46

Value

$99.46

PnL

-$10

Record

48%

61036-65868 (126904)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Eagles

Invested

$69.7

Value

$62.9

PnL

-$6.8

Record

53%

12487-11218 (23705)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Eagles

Invested

$32.1

Value

$32.1

PnL

+$0.43

Record

51%

37659-36887 (74546)

ic4creamCTR<$100

Eagles

Invested

$25.16

Value

$24.05

PnL

-$0.33

Record

56%

2770-2186 (4956)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Eagles

Invested

$4.61

Value

$4.66

PnL

+$0.05

Record

58%

21143-15371 (36514)

HerdoniaCTR<$100

Eagles

Invested

$0.61

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$0.01

Record

51%

3806-3729 (7535)

Research grade

NeutralGiants at 63%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Giants

2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

59h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Giants. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleEagles 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpGiants 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrEagles 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedEagles 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Eagles 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Giants wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.