Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (90%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Celtic FC vs. Kilmarnock FC: O/U 3.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 11¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 43%
$1.6K
$23.32
59.9¢ → 10.5¢
-82% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 11%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Under 90%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 60¢ | $1.5K | $946.8 | +$72.9 | 50% 32540-32687 (65227) |
FE ferrariChampions2026 | Underavg 40¢ | $1.5K | $509.22 | -$72.75 | 46% 33216-38836 (72052) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 56.6¢ | $55.26 | $86.33 | +$31.07 | 51% 46870-44196 (91066) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Underavg 43¢ | $93.42 | $32.23 | -$7.94 | 49% 2102-2190 (4292) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Overavg 57¢ | $12.31 | $12.42 | +$0.11 | 53% 2967-2581 (5548) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Underavg 39¢ | $5.39 | $1.78 | -$0.32 | 46% 30563-35669 (66232) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 54¢ | $2.17 | $1.42 | +$0.25 | 53% 70164-61737 (131901) |
Invested
$1,456.61
Value
$946.8
PnL
+$72.9
Record
50%
32540-32687 (65227)
Invested
$1,454.93
Value
$509.22
PnL
-$72.75
Record
46%
33216-38836 (72052)
Invested
$55.26
Value
$86.33
PnL
+$31.07
Record
51%
46870-44196 (91066)
Invested
$93.42
Value
$32.23
PnL
-$7.94
Record
49%
2102-2190 (4292)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$12.31
Value
$12.42
PnL
+$0.11
Record
53%
2967-2581 (5548)
Invested
$5.39
Value
$1.78
PnL
-$0.32
Record
46%
30563-35669 (66232)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$2.17
Value
$1.42
PnL
+$0.25
Record
53%
70164-61737 (131901)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
10.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.