Spread: Trabzonspor (-1.5)
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Trabzonspor (29%) · Trabzonspor at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Trabzonspor
7
Trabzonspor 29%
$4.7K
-$159.71
64.2¢ → 99.5¢
+55% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralTrabzonspor at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Trabzonsporavg 70.7¢ | $2.8K | $3.7K | +$891.43 | 51% 46870-44196 (91066) |
FE ferrariChampions2026 | Trabzonsporavg 37¢ | $884.78 | $698.98 | +$371.61 | 46% 33216-38836 (72052) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Alanyasporavg 63.5¢ | $1.0K | $336 | -$679.99 | 56% 8592-6809 (15401) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Alanyasporavg 20.5¢ | $737.9 | $18.02 | -$719.88 | 50% 32540-32687 (65227) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Alanyasporavg 40¢ | $40 | $8.4 | -$7.6 | 49% 2102-2190 (4292) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Alanyasporavg 65¢ | $5 | $1.05 | -$2.2 | 52% 9470-8570 (18040) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Alanyasporavg 19.5¢ | $13.42 | $0.34 | -$13.08 | 48% 2039-2213 (4252) |
Invested
$2,794.63
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$891.43
Record
51%
46870-44196 (91066)
Invested
$884.78
Value
$698.98
PnL
+$371.61
Record
46%
33216-38836 (72052)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$1,015.99
Value
$336
PnL
-$679.99
Record
56%
8592-6809 (15401)
Invested
$737.9
Value
$18.02
PnL
-$719.88
Record
50%
32540-32687 (65227)
Invested
$40
Value
$8.4
PnL
-$7.6
Record
49%
2102-2190 (4292)
Invested
$5
Value
$1.05
PnL
-$2.2
Record
52%
9470-8570 (18040)
Invested
$13.42
Value
$0.34
PnL
-$13.08
Record
48%
2039-2213 (4252)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.