Spread: Cowboys (-5.5)

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Colts (31%) · Colts at 54¢ · $38K held · ends Nov 8

Cowboys47¢Colts53¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Colts

Consensus Traders

Colts 31%

Total Value

$38.0K

Combined PnL

$1.09

Smart Money Entry

53.4¢ → 53.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralColts at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Colts

4 of 13 top traders (31%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cowboys47%

Colts54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Colts4 traders

Total Value$29.0K

Total Shares54,504

Combined PnL+$10.56

Cowboys9 traders

Total Value$8.9K

Total Shares19,152

Combined PnL-$9.48

Colts — 31%Cowboys — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Colts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleColts 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCowboys 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedCowboys 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Cowboys 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Coltsavg 54¢	$13.5K	$13.4K	-$125.22	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Coltsavg 54¢	$9.8K	$9.7K	-$90.88	47% 535-611 (1146)
GM gmpm2CTR	Cowboysavg 46¢	$6.4K	$6.5K	+$70.02	53% 372-326 (698)
HO HomeRunHazard	Coltsavg 51.1¢	$4.7K	$4.9K	+$196.66	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
38 38791873984189CTR	Cowboysavg 46.4¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$2.8	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
0X 0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283	Coltsavg 51.7¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$30	51% 364-346 (710)
VeryLucky888CTR	Cowboysavg 51¢	$1.2K	$299.47	-$85.76	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
AN Anon455CTR	Cowboysavg 46¢	$239.39	$241.99	+$2.6	55% 3814-3145 (6959)
GC GC-PCTR	Cowboysavg 46¢	$230	$232.5	+$2.5	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Cowboysavg 46¢	$85.19	$86.11	+$0.93	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	Cowboysavg 49¢	$49.35	$50.74	-$2.55	64% 2043-1136 (3179)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Cowboysavg 46¢	$10.22	$10.33	+$0.11	52% 5134-4713 (9847)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Cowboysavg 49¢	$3.92	$3.8	-$0.12	54% 10485-8797 (19282)

ferrariChampions2026

Colts

Invested

$13,523.59

Value

$13.4K

PnL

-$125.22

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Colts

Invested

$9,814.8

Value

$9.7K

PnL

-$90.88

Record

47%

535-611 (1146)

gmpm2CTR

Cowboys

Invested

$6,441.96

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$70.02

Record

53%

372-326 (698)

HomeRunHazard

Colts

Invested

$4,744.59

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$196.66

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

38791873984189CTR

Cowboys

Invested

$1,472.76

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$2.8

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283

Colts

Invested

$1,034.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$30

Record

51%

364-346 (710)

VeryLucky888CTR

Cowboys

Invested

$1,176.63

Value

$299.47

PnL

-$85.76

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

Anon455CTR

Cowboys

Invested

$239.39

Value

$241.99

PnL

+$2.6

Record

55%

3814-3145 (6959)

GC-PCTR

Cowboys

Invested

$230

Value

$232.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

NM-PCTR<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$85.19

Value

$86.11

PnL

+$0.93

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$49.35

Value

$50.74

PnL

-$2.55

Record

64%

2043-1136 (3179)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$10.22

Value

$10.33

PnL

+$0.11

Record

52%

5134-4713 (9847)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$3.92

Value

$3.8

PnL

-$0.12

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Research grade

NeutralColts at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Colts

4 of 13 top traders (31%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Colts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleColts 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCowboys 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedCowboys 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Cowboys 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Colts wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.