BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Elias Ymer vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Juan Manuel Cerundolo (60%) · Juan Manuel Cerundolo at 72¢ · $51K held · ends Nov 15

Elias Ymer28¢Juan Manuel Cerundolo72¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Consensus Traders

Juan Manuel Cerundolo 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$51.3K

Combined PnL

-$116.79

Smart Money Entry

74.2¢ → 71.5¢

-4% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralJuan Manuel Cerundolo at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

9 of 15 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Elias Ymer28%

Juan Manuel Cerundolo72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Juan Manuel Cerundolo9 traders

Total Value$43.2K

Total Shares58,354

Combined PnL-$372.39

Elias Ymer6 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares25,215

Combined PnL+$255.6

Juan Manuel Cerundolo — 60%Elias Ymer — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 74¢	$23.8K	$24.0K	+$160.88	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 74¢	$13.8K	$13.4K	-$471.41	50% 4741-4676 (9417)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Elias Ymeravg 26.4¢	$2.5K	$2.7K	+$198.97	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
K5 k56	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 77.7¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$56.92	58% 902-666 (1568)
SE sentrio	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 74¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$43.09	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Elias Ymeravg 26¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$38.46	55% 790-658 (1448)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Elias Ymeravg 26.8¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$85.2	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
HI hi774cARB<$100	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 73¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$4.62	46% 5332-6170 (11502)
└ Juan Manuel Cerundolo leg	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 73¢	$961.53	$941.77	-$19.76
└ Elias Ymer leg	Elias Ymeravg 23¢	$224.23	$277.85	+$24.37
LI LimousinCTR	Elias Ymeravg 28¢	$765.67	$779.34	+$13.67	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
0xheavy888	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 72¢	$480.24	$476.91	-$3.34	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
VeryLucky888	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 71¢	$1.0K	$189.75	+$46.11	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
VE VenusianCTR	Elias Ymeravg 24.9¢	$104.11	$100.3	-$3.81	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
EF efntrick<$100	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 74¢	$88.8	$85.8	-$3	48% 3689-3932 (7621)
PA Pan9X<$100	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 73.7¢	$83.65	$70.02	+$0.57	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Juan Manuel Cerundoloavg 73.8¢	$71.61	$69.41	-$2.2	64% 2043-1136 (3179)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Elias Ymeravg 28¢	$1.67	$1.7	+$0.03	64% 10183-5729 (15912)

ferrariChampions2026

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$23,810.37

Value

$24.0K

PnL

+$160.88

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$13,839.04

Value

$13.4K

PnL

-$471.41

Record

50%

4741-4676 (9417)

MadridTimeCTR

Elias Ymer

Invested

$2,459.73

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$198.97

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

k56

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$2,528.92

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$56.92

Record

58%

902-666 (1568)

sentrio

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$2,493.66

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$43.09

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

pltrkr111CTR

Elias Ymer

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$38.46

Record

55%

790-658 (1448)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Elias Ymer

Invested

$1,349.81

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$85.2

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

hi774cARB<$100

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$1,185.76

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$4.62

Record

46%

5332-6170 (11502)

Both legs:

Juan Manuel Cerundolo$961.5373¢-$19.76

Elias Ymer$224.2323¢+$24.37

LimousinCTR

Elias Ymer

Invested

$765.67

Value

$779.34

PnL

+$13.67

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

0xheavy888

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$480.24

Value

$476.91

PnL

-$3.34

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

VeryLucky888

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$1,017.22

Value

$189.75

PnL

+$46.11

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

VenusianCTR

Elias Ymer

Invested

$104.11

Value

$100.3

PnL

-$3.81

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

efntrick<$100

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$88.8

Value

$85.8

PnL

-$3

Record

48%

3689-3932 (7621)

Pan9X<$100

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$83.65

Value

$70.02

PnL

+$0.57

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

darkumbreon88<$100

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Invested

$71.61

Value

$69.41

PnL

-$2.2

Record

64%

2043-1136 (3179)

NM-PCTR<$100

Elias Ymer

Invested

$1.67

Value

$1.7

PnL

+$0.03

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

Research grade

NeutralJuan Manuel Cerundolo at 72%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

9 of 15 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Juan Manuel Cerundolo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.