Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (59%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 42¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 8

Over42¢Under58¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$11.97

Smart Money Entry

41.8¢ → 41.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Under 59%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over42%

Under59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,517

Combined PnL-$10.68

Under6 traders

Total Value$220.93

Total Shares368

Combined PnL-$1.28

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Overavg 42¢	$934.5	$925.45	-$9.05	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 40¢	$283.27	$292.96	+$9.69	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
└ Over leg	Overavg 40¢	$200	$207.5	+$7.5
└ Under leg	Underavg 57¢	$83.27	$85.46	+$2.19
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 59¢	$227.96	$225.74	-$2.22	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
└ Under leg	Underavg 59¢	$143.96	$142.74	-$1.22
└ Over leg	Overavg 42¢	$84	$83	-$1
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 59.6¢	$164.59	$161.58	-$3.01	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Underavg 58¢	$128.12	$130.93	+$2.81	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
└ Under leg	Underavg 58¢	$69.05	$69.64	+$0.6
└ Over leg	Overavg 40¢	$59.07	$61.28	+$2.22
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 42¢	$128.57	$126.99	-$1.58	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Overavg 42¢	$96.66	$95.26	-$1.4	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
└ Over leg	Overavg 42¢	$59.82	$59.11	-$0.71
└ Under leg	Underavg 59.6¢	$36.84	$36.15	-$0.69
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$39.23	$38.7	+$0.01	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
tradecraft<$100	Underavg 56¢	$28	$29.25	+$1.25	51% 6523-6284 (12807)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 61¢	$20.33	$20.66	+$0.33	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 42¢	$5.63	$5.57	-$0.07	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 59¢	$3.54	$3.51	-$0.03	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
HI hi774c<$100	Underavg 57¢	$2.85	$3.1	+$0.25	46% 5332-6170 (11502)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Underavg 58¢	$2.9	$2.82	-$0.08	50% 21821-22062 (43883)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Over

Invested

$934.5

Value

$925.45

PnL

-$9.05

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

NM-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$283.27

Value

$292.96

PnL

+$9.69

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

Both legs:

Over$20040¢+$7.5

Under$83.2757¢+$2.19

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$227.96

Value

$225.74

PnL

-$2.22

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

Both legs:

Under$143.9659¢-$1.22

Over$8442¢-$1

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$164.59

Value

$161.58

PnL

-$3.01

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

GC-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$128.12

Value

$130.93

PnL

+$2.81

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

Both legs:

Invested

$128.57

Value

$126.99

PnL

-$1.58

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

sentrioARB<$100

Over

Invested

$96.66

Value

$95.26

PnL

-$1.4

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

Both legs:

Over$59.8242¢-$0.71

Under$36.8459.6¢-$0.69

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$39.23

Value

$38.7

PnL

+$0.01

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

tradecraft<$100

Under

Invested

$28

Value

$29.25

PnL

+$1.25

Record

51%

6523-6284 (12807)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$20.33

Value

$20.66

PnL

+$0.33

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.63

Value

$5.57

PnL

-$0.07

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$3.54

Value

$3.51

PnL

-$0.03

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

hi774c<$100

Under

Invested

$2.85

Value

$3.1

PnL

+$0.25

Record

46%

5332-6170 (11502)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Under

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.82

PnL

-$0.08

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 42%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Under 59%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.