Viking FK vs. KFUM-Kameratene Oslo: O/U 3.5

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (31%) · Over at 100¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 8

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 31%

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

55¢ → 100¢

+82% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 13 top traders (31%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares10,039

Combined PnL-$392.41

Under9 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares9,858

Combined PnL-$687.16

Over — 31%Under — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrUnder 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Overavg 54.9¢	$4.6K	$4.2K	-$363.27	48% 214-236 (450)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Overavg 53¢	$1.6K	$788.85	-$39.05	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 45¢	$2.0K	$771.19	-$126.19	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 45¢	$1.7K	$670.49	-$113.2	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 46.3¢	$900	$435.68	+$23.78	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
RN1CTR	Underavg 45¢	$981.1	$377.97	-$63.55	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
dips.<$100	Overavg 98¢	$83.3	$84.96	+$1.66	46% 12026-13917 (25943)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Overavg 80.8¢	$34.87	$43.13	+$8.26	71% 18400-7571 (25971)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 48.8¢	$76.41	$36.49	-$402.76	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$36.36	$14	-$2.36	46% 30563-35669 (66232)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$11.93	$9.26	-$0.28	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$8.87	$3.41	-$0.75	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 37¢	$1.85	$0	-$1.85	49% 2102-2190 (4292)

1l2ihj34li12u34

Over

Invested

$4,579.49

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$363.27

Record

48%

214-236 (450)

ferrariChampions2026

Over

Invested

$1,562.08

Value

$788.85

PnL

-$39.05

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$1,990.38

Value

$771.19

PnL

-$126.19

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$1,741.53

Value

$670.49

PnL

-$113.2

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$900

Value

$435.68

PnL

+$23.78

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$981.1

Value

$377.97

PnL

-$63.55

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

dips.<$100

Over

Invested

$83.3

Value

$84.96

PnL

+$1.66

Record

46%

12026-13917 (25943)

WagerWizard<$100

Over

Invested

$34.87

Value

$43.13

PnL

+$8.26

Record

71%

18400-7571 (25971)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$76.41

Value

$36.49

PnL

-$402.76

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$36.36

Value

$14

PnL

-$2.36

Record

46%

30563-35669 (66232)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.93

Value

$9.26

PnL

-$0.28

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.87

Value

$3.41

PnL

-$0.75

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.85

Value

PnL

-$1.85

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 13 top traders (31%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrUnder 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.