SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 78¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 8

Over23¢Under77¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.7K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Entry

43.6¢ → 77.5¢

+78% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over23%

Under78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$9.6K

Total Shares14,664

Combined PnL+$2.6K

Over4 traders

Total Value$996.25

Total Shares3,548

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 44.5¢	$4.4K	$6.9K	+$2.5K	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Overavg 57.4¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$26	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
└ Over leg	Overavg 57.4¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$38
└ Under leg	Underavg 43¢	$344	$356	+$12
VE Venusian	Underavg 42¢	$2.3K	$1.0K	+$57.53	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
OM omnibus-076daa	Underavg 41.9¢	$928.08	$929.58	+$1.5	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 43¢	$1.6K	$694.66	+$23.42	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 57.7¢	$1.7K	$671.75	$-1.1K	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Underavg 43¢	$609.79	$297.51	-$0.36	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
└ Under leg	Underavg 43¢	$159.97	$165.55	+$5.58
└ Over leg	Overavg 58¢	$137.91	$131.96	-$5.94
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 57.3¢	$406.32	$250.54	+$2.44	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
└ Over leg	Overavg 57.3¢	$196.4	$190.37	+$0.28
└ Under leg	Underavg 42.9¢	$58.01	$60.18	+$2.16
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Overavg 57¢	$3.1K	$212.62	-$5.75	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
nigiri99ARB<$100	Overavg 57.8¢	$118.53	$119.46	+$0.93	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
└ Under leg	Underavg 42¢	$56.7	$60.08	+$3.38
└ Over leg	Overavg 57.8¢	$61.82	$59.39	-$2.44
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 57¢	$172.41	$93.71	-$1.87	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
RN1	Underavg 43¢	$175.44	$78.07	+$2.63	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 57¢	$55	$18.18	-$0.38	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 42¢	$5	$2.23	+$0.13	52% 9470-8570 (18040)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$4,414.66

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,492

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$26

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

Both legs:

Over$1,147.857.4¢-$38

Under$34443¢+$12

Venusian

Under

Invested

$2,301.26

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$57.53

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

omnibus-076daa

Under

Invested

$928.08

Value

$929.58

PnL

+$1.5

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$1,561.03

Value

$694.66

PnL

+$23.42

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$1,723.73

Value

$671.75

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

sentrioARB<$100

Under

Invested

$609.79

Value

$297.51

PnL

-$0.36

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

Both legs:

Under$159.9743¢+$5.58

Over$137.9158¢-$5.94

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$406.32

Value

$250.54

PnL

+$2.44

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Both legs:

Over$196.457.3¢+$0.28

Under$58.0142.9¢+$2.16

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Over

Invested

$3,127.29

Value

$212.62

PnL

-$5.75

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

nigiri99ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$118.53

Value

$119.46

PnL

+$0.93

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

Both legs:

Under$56.742¢+$3.38

Over$61.8257.8¢-$2.44

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$172.41

Value

$93.71

PnL

-$1.87

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

RN1

Under

Invested

$175.44

Value

$78.07

PnL

+$2.63

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$55

Value

$18.18

PnL

-$0.38

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$2.23

PnL

+$0.13

Record

52%

9470-8570 (18040)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 78%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.