Spread: PSV (-1.5)

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold PSV (62%) · PSV at 82¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 8

PSV82¢SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden18¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

PSV

Consensus Traders

PSV 62%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.9K

Combined PnL

$90.12

Smart Money Entry

50.4¢ → 81.5¢

+62% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralPSV at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

PSV

8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

PSV82%

SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

PSV8 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares7,351

Combined PnL+$2.9K

SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden5 traders

Total Value$457.74

Total Shares6,535

Combined PnL$-2.8K

PSV — 62%SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AY ay118	PSVavg 46¢	$1.7K	$3.4K	+$1.7K	44% 57-73 (130)
GO GoalLineGhost	PSVavg 54.4¢	$1.3K	$1.9K	+$693.19	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	SC Cambuur-Leeuwardenavg 53.4¢	$2.0K	$1.7K	-$904.27	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
└ PSV leg	PSVavg 48.7¢	$676.27	$1.2K	+$448.05
└ SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden leg	SC Cambuur-Leeuwardenavg 53.4¢	$1.9K	$577.99	$-1.4K
LI Limousin	PSVavg 57.5¢	$418.67	$652.68	+$234.01	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
0xheavy888	PSVavg 47.3¢	$255.28	$504.27	+$248.99	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
RA rabbitfoot1CTR	SC Cambuur-Leeuwardenavg 53¢	$5.3K	$344.12	$-2.5K	54% 1253-1065 (2318)
38 38791873984189	PSVavg 78¢	$100	$94	+$16	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
SE sentrio<$100	PSVavg 48.8¢	$84.98	$45.1	-$18.97	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	SC Cambuur-Leeuwardenavg 34¢	$93.54	$42.64	-$50.9	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
VE VenusianCTR	SC Cambuur-Leeuwardenavg 21¢	$398.22	$35.77	-$50.81	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	SC Cambuur-Leeuwardenavg 51¢	$485.24	$29.11	-$218.42	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
LI LightParadox<$100	PSVavg 47¢	$26.89	$25.15	+$12.51	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
WA WagerWizard<$100	PSVavg 92¢	$10	$9.4	+$0.2	71% 18400-7571 (25971)
RN1CTR<$100	SC Cambuur-Leeuwardenavg 36¢	$93.75	$6.09	-$27.66	53% 70164-61737 (131901)

ay118

PSV

Invested

$1,659.66

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

44%

57-73 (130)

GoalLineGhost

PSV

Invested

$1,254.22

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$693.19

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

FlaznorpARB<$100

SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden

Invested

$2,044.44

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$904.27

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

Both legs:

PSV$676.2748.7¢+$448.05

SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden$1,930.3153.4¢$-1.4K

Limousin

PSV

Invested

$418.67

Value

$652.68

PnL

+$234.01

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

0xheavy888

PSV

Invested

$255.28

Value

$504.27

PnL

+$248.99

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

rabbitfoot1CTR

SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden

Invested

$5,294.21

Value

$344.12

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

54%

1253-1065 (2318)

38791873984189

PSV

Invested

$100

Value

$94

PnL

+$16

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

sentrio<$100

PSV

Invested

$84.98

Value

$45.1

PnL

-$18.97

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden

Invested

$93.54

Value

$42.64

PnL

-$50.9

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

VenusianCTR

SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden

Invested

$398.22

Value

$35.77

PnL

-$50.81

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden

Invested

$485.24

Value

$29.11

PnL

-$218.42

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

LightParadox<$100

PSV

Invested

$26.89

Value

$25.15

PnL

+$12.51

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

WagerWizard<$100

PSV

Invested

$10

Value

$9.4

PnL

+$0.2

Record

71%

18400-7571 (25971)

RN1CTR<$100

SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden

Invested

$93.75

Value

$6.09

PnL

-$27.66

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

Research grade

NeutralPSV at 82%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

PSV

8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that PSV wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.