Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (55%). 11 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 220.5

11 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (79%) · Under at 46¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 9

Over55¢Under45¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 79%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$15.86

Smart Money Entry

45.8¢ → 45.5¢

-1% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 14 top traders (79%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over55%

Under46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,876

Combined PnL+$49.44

Under11 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,509

Combined PnL-$33.58

Over — 21%Under — 79%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

79% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 63% · 8

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 77% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 52.6¢	$1.7K	$919.08	+$47.4	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 45.5¢	$639.38	$284.52	-$6.16	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 48¢	$401.06	$178.47	-$14.04	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 44¢	$350	$155.75	+$1.75	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 44¢	$270.59	$120.41	+$1.35	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Underavg 50¢	$253.58	$112.84	-$13.95	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 44¢	$505.18	$111.96	+$1.16	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
nigiri99	Overavg 55¢	$110.55	$111.56	+$1.01	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
SE sentrioCTR	Underavg 46.3¢	$146.9	$66.44	-$2.47	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 44¢	$144	$64.08	+$0.72	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 49.7¢	$37	$16.47	-$1.91	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100	Overavg 50¢	$9.4	$10.43	+$1.03	49% 507-531 (1038)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$9	$8.9	-$0.1	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$2.04	$2.11	+$0.07	50% 48537-48152 (96689)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$1,656.01

Value

$919.08

PnL

+$47.4

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$639.38

Value

$284.52

PnL

-$6.16

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$401.06

Value

$178.47

PnL

-$14.04

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$350

Value

$155.75

PnL

+$1.75

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$270.59

Value

$120.41

PnL

+$1.35

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Under

Invested

$253.58

Value

$112.84

PnL

-$13.95

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$505.18

Value

$111.96

PnL

+$1.16

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$110.55

Value

$111.56

PnL

+$1.01

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

sentrioCTR

Under

Invested

$146.9

Value

$66.44

PnL

-$2.47

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$144

Value

$64.08

PnL

+$0.72

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$37

Value

$16.47

PnL

-$1.91

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

Multicoloured-Serf<$100

Over

Invested

$9.4

Value

$10.43

PnL

+$1.03

Record

49%

507-531 (1038)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$8.9

PnL

-$0.1

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.04

Value

$2.11

PnL

+$0.07

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 14 top traders (79%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

79% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 63% · 8

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 77% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.