Sports: what top Polymarket traders hold
Every sport in one list: leagues, matches, spreads, totals and futures. These are the Sports markets on Polymarket in which at least five of the top traders we track hold a position, with the side most of them hold (the consensus), what share of them hold it and the market's own price for that side.
A consensus is a head count of who holds what, not a probability, and following it did not pay on average in our backtests — see how it works.
- Live consensus markets
- 353
- Recently settled, consensus right
- 1206 of 1832
- Prices as of
- Oct 25, 07:19 UTC
Live Sports consensus markets (353)
- Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Traders hold Yes 73%54 of 75 tradersMarket price 72¢$1.2M heldSoccer
- Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Traders hold Yes 54%27 of 52 tradersMarket price 10¢$290K heldSocceragainst the market price
- Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Traders hold No 36%17 of 47 tradersMarket price 84¢$432K heldSoccer
- Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Traders hold No 49%18 of 37 tradersMarket price 99¢$279K heldSoccer
- Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Traders hold Yes 86%25 of 29 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$3K heldSocceragainst the market price
- Will Athletic Club win on 2026-10-10?Traders hold No 67%16 of 26 tradersMarket price 54¢$405K heldSoccer
- Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Traders hold No 28%7 of 25 tradersMarket price 100¢$112K heldSoccer
- Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Traders hold Yes 96%24 of 25 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$3K heldSocceragainst the market price
- Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Traders hold Yes 100%25 of 25 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$294 heldSocceragainst the market price
- Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Traders hold No 4%1 of 24 tradersMarket price 100¢$2K heldSoccer
- Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Traders hold Yes 86%18 of 21 tradersMarket price 99¢$297K heldF1
- Bengals vs. RavensTraders hold Bengals 53%10 of 21 tradersMarket price 59¢$188K heldNFL
- Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?Traders hold No 40%8 of 21 tradersMarket price 16¢$102K heldMLBagainst the market price
- Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Traders hold Yes 100%21 of 21 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$242 heldSocceragainst the market price
- Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Liquid (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group StageTraders hold FUT Esports 60%12 of 20 tradersMarket price 73¢$145K heldEsports
- Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Nemiga (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group StageTraders hold BetBoom Team 60%12 of 20 tradersMarket price 59¢$70K heldEsports
- Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?Traders hold No 42%8 of 20 tradersMarket price 84¢$63K heldMLB
- Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Sayaka Ishii vs Yulia PutintsevaTraders hold Yulia Putintseva 60%9 of 20 tradersMarket price 75¢$57K heldTennis
- Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Traders hold Yes 100%20 of 20 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$306 heldSocceragainst the market price
- Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Traders hold Yes 100%20 of 20 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$214 heldSocceragainst the market price
- Will Lautaro Martinez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Traders hold Yes 100%19 of 19 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$233 heldSocceragainst the market price
- Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Traders hold Yes 95%18 of 19 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$179 heldSocceragainst the market price
- Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?Traders hold Mbappé 44%8 of 18 tradersMarket price 75¢$120K heldSoccer
- Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Traders hold Yes 100%18 of 18 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$147 heldSocceragainst the market price
- Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-10-10?Traders hold No 44%7 of 17 tradersMarket price 69¢$102K heldSoccer
- Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-25?Traders hold No 69%11 of 17 tradersMarket price 74¢$96K heldSoccer
- Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?Traders hold No 82%14 of 17 tradersMarket price 94¢$49K heldSoccer
- Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Traders hold No 18%3 of 17 tradersMarket price 100¢$2K heldSoccer
- Will Luis Diaz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Traders hold Yes 100%17 of 17 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$170 heldSocceragainst the market price
- Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Traders hold Yes 100%16 of 16 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$169 heldSocceragainst the market price
- Steelers vs. Saints: O/U 44.5Traders hold Under 20%3 of 15 tradersMarket price 56¢$272K heldNFL
- Guangzhou Open, Qualification: Tatiana Prozorova vs Joanna GarlandTraders hold Tatiana Prozorova 83%10 of 15 tradersMarket price 100¢$125K heldTennis
- Will João Neves win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Traders hold Yes 100%15 of 15 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$195 heldSocceragainst the market price
- Will Nuno Mendes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Traders hold Yes 100%15 of 15 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$195 heldSocceragainst the market price
- Will Gabriel Magalhães win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Traders hold Yes 100%15 of 15 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$195 heldSocceragainst the market price
- Will Julián Quiñones win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Traders hold Yes 100%15 of 15 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$195 heldSocceragainst the market price
- Will Ferran Torres win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Traders hold Yes 100%15 of 15 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$195 heldSocceragainst the market price
- Will William Saliba win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Traders hold Yes 100%15 of 15 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$195 heldSocceragainst the market price
- Will Sadio Mané win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Traders hold Yes 100%15 of 15 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$195 heldSocceragainst the market price
- Will Marquinhos win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Traders hold Yes 100%15 of 15 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$195 heldSocceragainst the market price
- Will Dayot Upamecano win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Traders hold Yes 100%15 of 15 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$195 heldSocceragainst the market price
- Will Willian Pacho win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Traders hold Yes 100%15 of 15 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$195 heldSocceragainst the market price
- Will Marc Cucurella win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Traders hold Yes 100%15 of 15 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$195 heldSocceragainst the market price
- Steelers vs. SaintsTraders hold Steelers 43%6 of 14 tradersMarket price 61¢$87K heldNFL
- Melbourne United vs. Sydney KingsTraders hold Melbourne United 79%11 of 14 tradersMarket price 91¢$27K heldOther Sports
- Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?Traders hold Yes 57%8 of 14 tradersMarket price 6.5¢$13K heldNFLagainst the market price
- Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Traders hold No 36%5 of 14 tradersMarket price 100¢$13K heldSoccer
- Will Team Secret Whales win Worlds 2026?Traders hold Yes 100%14 of 14 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$15 heldEsportsagainst the market price
- Will Brentford FC win on 2026-10-25?Traders hold Yes 15%2 of 13 tradersMarket price 59¢$262K heldSoccer
- Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Traders hold No 15%2 of 13 tradersMarket price 83¢$158K heldSoccer
- Will G2 Esports win Worlds 2026?Traders hold No 23%3 of 13 tradersMarket price 97¢$24K heldEsports
- Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship?Traders hold Yes 92%12 of 13 tradersMarket price 2.5¢$9K heldNFLagainst the market price
- Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship?Traders hold Yes 85%11 of 13 tradersMarket price 3.1¢$9K heldNFLagainst the market price
- Lakers vs. JazzTraders hold Lakers 58%7 of 13 tradersMarket price 68¢$7K heldNBA
- Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Traders hold Yes 83%10 of 12 tradersMarket price 66¢$496K heldSoccer
- Spread: Vikings (-6.5)Traders hold Vikings 33%4 of 12 tradersMarket price 52¢$166K heldNFL
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5Traders hold Over 25%3 of 12 tradersMarket price 25¢$57K heldSocceragainst the market price
- Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?Traders hold Yes 83%10 of 12 tradersMarket price 36¢$35K heldEsportsagainst the market price
- Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026?Traders hold No 17%2 of 12 tradersMarket price 87¢$21K heldEsports
- Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Traders hold Yes 75%9 of 12 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$5K heldF1against the market price
- Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Traders hold Yes 83%10 of 12 tradersMarket price 0.8¢$2K heldF1against the market price
- Will LOS win Worlds 2026?Traders hold Yes 100%12 of 12 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$9 heldEsportsagainst the market price
- Spread: Panthers (-3.5)Traders hold Buccaneers 36%4 of 11 tradersMarket price 57¢$152K heldNFL
- Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-10-25?Traders hold No 18%2 of 11 tradersMarket price 64¢$74K heldSoccer
- Will Harry Kane finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Traders hold Yes 45%5 of 11 tradersMarket price 98¢$42K heldSoccer
- Counter-Strike: G2 vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group StageTraders hold Aurora Gaming 36%4 of 11 tradersMarket price 57¢$27K heldEsports
- Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Traders hold No 55%6 of 11 tradersMarket price 88¢$16K heldSoccer
- Will Hanwha Life Esports win Worlds 2026?Traders hold Yes 82%9 of 11 tradersMarket price 18¢$15K heldEsportsagainst the market price
- Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?Traders hold Yes 64%7 of 11 tradersMarket price 5.5¢$11K heldNFLagainst the market price
- Will T1 win Worlds 2026?Traders hold No 55%6 of 11 tradersMarket price 85¢$9K heldEsports
- Will JEF United Ichihara Chiba win on 2026-10-25?Traders hold Yes 50%5 of 11 tradersMarket price 81¢$7K heldSoccer
- Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship?Traders hold Yes 91%10 of 11 tradersMarket price 3.0¢$3K heldNFLagainst the market price
- Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Traders hold No 70%7 of 10 tradersMarket price 88¢$510K heldSoccer
- Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-25?Traders hold No 10%1 of 10 tradersMarket price 48¢$70K heldSocceragainst the market price
- Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-25?Traders hold Yes 50%5 of 10 tradersMarket price 59¢$68K heldSoccer
- Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?Traders hold Yes 100%10 of 10 tradersMarket price 24¢$64K heldNBAagainst the market price
- Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Traders hold Yes 80%8 of 10 tradersMarket price 14¢$41K heldSocceragainst the market price
- Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)Traders hold Real Madrid CF 78%7 of 10 tradersMarket price 61¢$34K heldSoccer
- Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?Traders hold Yes 30%3 of 10 tradersMarket price 81¢$31K heldEsports
- Raptors vs. TimberwolvesTraders hold Timberwolves 71%5 of 10 tradersMarket price 51¢$25K heldNBA
- Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5)Traders hold MOUZ 80%8 of 10 tradersMarket price 46¢$22K heldEsportsagainst the market price
- Will SBV Excelsior win on 2026-10-25?Traders hold No 100%10 of 10 tradersMarket price 64¢$16K heldSoccer
- Anyang vs. Wonju DB PromyTraders hold Wonju DB Promy 60%6 of 10 tradersMarket price 100¢$10K heldOther Sports
- Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship?Traders hold Yes 80%8 of 10 tradersMarket price 6.3¢$9K heldNFLagainst the market price
- Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?Traders hold Yes 50%5 of 10 tradersMarket price 98¢$5K heldF1
- Magic vs. KnicksTraders hold Magic 20%2 of 10 tradersMarket price 28¢$4K heldNBAagainst the market price
- Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship?Traders hold Yes 80%8 of 10 tradersMarket price 0.9¢$2K heldNFLagainst the market price
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-10-25?Traders hold No 70%7 of 10 tradersMarket price 95¢$2K heldSoccer
- Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship?Traders hold Yes 90%9 of 10 tradersMarket price 0.4¢$2K heldNFLagainst the market price
- Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship?Traders hold Yes 80%8 of 10 tradersMarket price 0.4¢$1K heldNFLagainst the market price
- Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Traders hold Yes 80%8 of 10 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$1K heldF1against the market price
- Will Erling Haaland finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Traders hold No 10%1 of 10 tradersMarket price 100¢$342 heldSoccer
- Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Traders hold Yes 100%10 of 10 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$37 heldF1against the market price
- Will Milwaukee Bucks win the 2027 NBA Finals?Traders hold Yes 100%10 of 10 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$19 heldNBAagainst the market price
- Will CTBC Flying Oyster win Worlds 2026?Traders hold Yes 100%10 of 10 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$5 heldEsportsagainst the market price
- Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Traders hold No 33%3 of 9 tradersMarket price 95¢$60K heldSoccer
- Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?Traders hold Yes 78%7 of 9 tradersMarket price 83¢$59K heldSoccer
- SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5Traders hold Under 43%3 of 9 tradersMarket price 46¢$50K heldSocceragainst the market price
- Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Traders hold No 33%3 of 9 tradersMarket price 90¢$45K heldSoccer
- Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?Traders hold Yes 67%6 of 9 tradersMarket price 13¢$28K heldNFLagainst the market price
Showing the 100 markets with the most traders of 353; the markets page has them all.
Top traders in Sports
Tracked traders with 10 or more settled Sports consensus markets whose side won more often than its entry price implied, ranked by how much (on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short lucky run does not rank first). These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero.
- 1.0xC576775EF9167dDc38ee6a4E537545ab73d0b9d2-1789288093603+63 ptsside won 100% of 89 · avg entry 37¢ · ROI +64%
- 2.Rafifa+67 ptsside won 91% of 66 · avg entry 23¢ · ROI +68%
- 3.4d9a879611D994FD9B56+58 ptsside won 98% of 149 · avg entry 40¢ · ROI +49%
- 4.0xd6c1c24846e0187f38c74497620ad7e+55 ptsside won 100% of 504 · avg entry 45¢ · ROI +53%
- 5.pieped+57 ptsside won 100% of 106 · avg entry 43¢ · ROI +58%
- 6.chongchong37+60 ptsside won 94% of 86 · avg entry 35¢ · ROI +51%
- 7.CyberScore.live+53 ptsside won 99% of 327 · avg entry 45¢ · ROI +53%
- 8.hedgevaultmainnet1+51 ptsside won 100% of 2981 · avg entry 48¢ · ROI +48%
- 9.65765757+53 ptsside won 98% of 369 · avg entry 46¢ · ROI +54%
- 10.0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494+51 ptsside won 99% of 2687 · avg entry 49¢ · ROI +52%
Recently settled Sports markets
What the tracked traders held when each market settled, and how it came out. A handful of markets says little about the next one.
- Exact Score: Pumas de la UNAM 3 - 3 Tigres de la UANL?Result: NoTraders held No 100%consensus was right
- Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-10-24?Result: NoTraders held Yes 25%consensus was wrong
- Will Pumas de la UNAM vs. Tigres de la UANL end in a draw?Result: YesTraders held Yes 30%consensus was right
- Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-10-24?Result: NoTraders held No 67%consensus was right
- Pumas de la UNAM vs. Tigres de la UANL: O/U 2.5Result: UnderTraders held Under 67%consensus was right
- Pumas de la UNAM vs. Tigres de la UANL: Both Teams to ScoreResult: YesTraders held Yes 100%consensus was right
- Pumas de la UNAM vs. Tigres de la UANL: O/U 0.5Result: OverTraders held Over 50%consensus was right
- Pumas de la UNAM vs. Tigres de la UANL: O/U 4.5Result: UnderTraders held Under 67%consensus was right
- Pumas de la UNAM vs. Tigres de la UANL: O/U 3.5Result: UnderTraders held Over 100%consensus was wrong
- Pumas de la UNAM vs. Tigres de la UANL: O/U 1.5Result: OverTraders held Over 89%consensus was right
- Spread: Pumas de la UNAM (-1.5)Result: Tigres de la UANLTraders held Pumas de la UNAM 50%consensus was wrong
- Will Alacranes de Durango win on 2026-10-24?Result: NoTraders held No 100%consensus was right
Holders update as the tracked traders trade, and prices refresh about once a minute. Only wallets with a position of at least 1 share count as holders; the side is the one with the most money behind it among holders with $100 or more in the market. PolyConsensus is not affiliated with Polymarket and this is not investment advice. More: all topics, the trader leaderboard, large trades.