Anyang vs. Wonju DB Promy

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Wonju DB Promy (67%) · Wonju DB Promy at 65¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 1

Anyang36¢Wonju DB Promy64¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Wonju DB Promy

Consensus Traders

Wonju DB Promy 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

44.1¢ → 64.5¢

+46% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralWonju DB Promy at 65%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wonju DB Promy

6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Anyang36%

Wonju DB Promy65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wonju DB Promy6 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares5,472

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Anyang3 traders

Total Value$191.09

Total Shares553

Combined PnL+$1.34

Wonju DB Promy — 67%Anyang — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Wonju DB Promy. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpWonju DB Promy 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrWonju DB Promy 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedWonju DB Promy 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Wonju DB Promy 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Wonju DB Promyavg 65.2¢	$2.5K	$3.4K	+$857.05	46% 301-348 (649)
└ Anyang leg	Anyangavg 21.2¢	$1.2K	$2.1K	+$890.8
└ Wonju DB Promy leg	Wonju DB Promyavg 65.2¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$33.75
NO Notradecopy	Wonju DB Promyavg 38¢	$1,000	$1.7K	+$657.89	60% 2978-1993 (4971)
GA GamblingAddict12345	Wonju DB Promyavg 38¢	$433.51	$718.71	+$285.2	59% 3045-2099 (5144)
LS LSS1	Wonju DB Promyavg 51.1¢	$409.04	$503.96	+$94.91	72% 1271-506 (1777)
BI BIAVNARB<$100	Wonju DB Promyavg 60¢	$394.59	$457.3	+$62.71	51% 195-191 (386)
└ Wonju DB Promy leg	Wonju DB Promyavg 60¢	$270.9	$325.08	+$54.18
└ Anyang leg	Anyangavg 26.2¢	$123.69	$132.22	+$8.53
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Wonju DB Promyavg 71¢	$354.99	$329.99	-$25	63% 22415-13239 (35654)
BE betwithconvic	Wonju DB Promyavg 58¢	$174	$189	+$15	56% 347-273 (620)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR	Anyangavg 17.8¢	$71.19	$136.28	-$3.05	55% 1287-1037 (2324)
VeryLucky888	Wonju DB Promyavg 41.5¢	$166	$63	+$32	58% 31334-22653 (53987)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Anyangavg 28.7¢	$28.75	$34	+$5.25	47% 3561-4009 (7570)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Anyangavg 39¢	$21.67	$20.82	-$0.85	58% 1321-965 (2286)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Wonju DB Promy

Invested

$2,519.91

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$857.05

Record

46%

301-348 (649)

Both legs:

Anyang$1,227.5321.2¢+$890.8

Wonju DB Promy$1,292.3865.2¢-$33.75

Notradecopy

Wonju DB Promy

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$657.89

Record

60%

2978-1993 (4971)

GamblingAddict12345

Wonju DB Promy

Invested

$433.51

Value

$718.71

PnL

+$285.2

Record

59%

3045-2099 (5144)

LSS1

Wonju DB Promy

Invested

$409.04

Value

$503.96

PnL

+$94.91

Record

72%

1271-506 (1777)

BIAVNARB<$100

Wonju DB Promy

Invested

$394.59

Value

$457.3

PnL

+$62.71

Record

51%

195-191 (386)

Both legs:

Wonju DB Promy$270.960¢+$54.18

Anyang$123.6926.2¢+$8.53

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Wonju DB Promy

Invested

$354.99

Value

$329.99

PnL

-$25

Record

63%

22415-13239 (35654)

betwithconvic

Wonju DB Promy

Invested

$174

Value

$189

PnL

+$15

Record

56%

347-273 (620)

VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR

Anyang

Invested

$71.19

Value

$136.28

PnL

-$3.05

Record

55%

1287-1037 (2324)

VeryLucky888

Wonju DB Promy

Invested

$166

Value

$63

PnL

+$32

Record

58%

31334-22653 (53987)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Anyang

Invested

$28.75

Value

$34

PnL

+$5.25

Record

47%

3561-4009 (7570)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Anyang

Invested

$21.67

Value

$20.82

PnL

-$0.85

Record

58%

1321-965 (2286)

Research grade

NeutralWonju DB Promy at 65%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Wonju DB Promy

6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Wonju DB Promy. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpWonju DB Promy 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrWonju DB Promy 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedWonju DB Promy 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Wonju DB Promy 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wonju DB Promy wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.