Will SBV Excelsior win on 2026-10-25?
10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 64¢ · $16K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 100%
$16.2K
-$278.54
65.1¢ → 63.5¢
-2% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 64%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 10 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Noavg 64.9¢ | $6.7K | $6.6K | -$96.25 | 47% 1955-2177 (4132) |
 us391 | Noavg 65¢ | $3.6K | $3.6K | -$55.95 | 52% 1346-1266 (2612) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Noavg 66¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | -$80 | 69% 4216-1907 (6123) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 64.7¢ | $864.78 | $855.91 | -$8.87 | 53% 13553-11995 (25548) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 64.5¢ | $774 | $768 | -$6 | 58% 31395-22700 (54095) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 65.2¢ | $756.06 | $735.87 | -$20.19 | 68% 30779-14814 (45593) |
 0xheavy888 | Noavg 65¢ | $390 | $384 | -$6 | 55% 6317-5068 (11385) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Noavg 64¢ | $336.96 | $334.33 | -$2.63 | 59% 13747-9558 (23305) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Noavg 64.7¢ | $250.32 | $247.68 | -$2.64 | 54% 13697-11517 (25214) |
SL slimjoe<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $78.72 | $78.72 | +$0 | 52% 5323-4932 (10255) |
Invested
$6,736.25
Value
$6.6K
PnL
-$96.25
Record
47%
1955-2177 (4132)
us391Invested
$3,636.89
Value
$3.6K
PnL
-$55.95
Record
52%
1346-1266 (2612)
Invested
$2,640
Value
$2.6K
PnL
-$80
Record
69%
4216-1907 (6123)
Invested
$864.78
Value
$855.91
PnL
-$8.87
Record
53%
13553-11995 (25548)
VeryLucky888Invested
$774
Value
$768
PnL
-$6
Record
58%
31395-22700 (54095)
Invested
$756.06
Value
$735.87
PnL
-$20.19
Record
68%
30779-14814 (45593)
0xheavy888Invested
$390
Value
$384
PnL
-$6
Record
55%
6317-5068 (11385)
Invested
$336.96
Value
$334.33
PnL
-$2.63
Record
59%
13747-9558 (23305)
Invested
$250.32
Value
$247.68
PnL
-$2.64
Record
54%
13697-11517 (25214)
Invested
$78.72
Value
$78.72
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
5323-4932 (10255)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542
No — $6.6K
us391
No — $3.6K
0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989
No — $2.6K
Cannae
No — $855.91
VeryLucky888
No — $768
UpTheBlues
No — $735.87
0xheavy888
No — $384
omnibus-076daa
No — $334.33
LeLynxMalynx
No — $247.68
slimjoe
No — $78.72