Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Pumas de la UNAM vs. Tigres de la UANL: Both Teams to Score
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25
🔄
Contrarian
No
5
No 40%
$1.1K
$181.22
56.1¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 2 traders
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 55¢ | $752.4 | $930.58 | +$178.18 | 68% 30682-14740 (45422) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Noavg 62.4¢ | $153.13 | $167.01 | +$13.87 | 50% 8681-8611 (17292) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Yesavg 57.1¢ | $63.87 | $16.7 | -$3.06 | 58% 31291-22609 (53900) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Yesavg 58¢ | $13.26 | $10.29 | -$2.97 | 61% 4327-2785 (7112) |
NO NordhavenCap<$100 | Yesavg 80¢ | $8 | $3.2 | -$4.8 | 58% 1650-1178 (2828) |
Invested
$752.4
Value
$930.58
PnL
+$178.18
Record
68%
30682-14740 (45422)
Invested
$153.13
Value
$167.01
PnL
+$13.87
Record
50%
8681-8611 (17292)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$63.87
Value
$16.7
PnL
-$3.06
Record
58%
31291-22609 (53900)
Invested
$13.26
Value
$10.29
PnL
-$2.97
Record
61%
4327-2785 (7112)
Invested
$8
Value
$3.2
PnL
-$4.8
Record
58%
1650-1178 (2828)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.