Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (69%). 8 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Pumas de la UNAM vs. Tigres de la UANL end in a draw?

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 32¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 25

Yes69¢No31¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔄

Contrarian

Consensus Traders

No 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$999.38

Smart Money Entry

49.5¢ → 31.5¢

-36% since entry · 8 traders

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes69%

No32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,166

Combined PnL+$1.1K

No8 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,462

Combined PnL-$50.81

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 27.1¢	$844	$1.9K	+$1.1K	68% 30682-14740 (45422)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Yesavg 39.9¢	$742.81	$951.42	+$208.61	57% 1446-1073 (2519)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 39.9¢	$415.89	$683.34	+$267.46
└ No leg	Noavg 42.1¢	$326.93	$268.08	-$58.85
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 38.2¢	$677.04	$629.49	-$47.55	52% 16093-14633 (30726)
RN1CTR	Noavg 81.9¢	$415.96	$414.14	-$1.83	55% 43011-35367 (78378)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Noavg 61.7¢	$127.75	$90.95	-$36.8	53% 12053-10832 (22885)
└ No leg	Noavg 61.7¢	$96.35	$55.47	-$40.88
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 57.1¢	$31.4	$35.48	+$4.08
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 73.1¢	$65.8	$63	-$2.8	54% 13611-11436 (25047)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 74¢	$19.32	$18.28	-$1.04	53% 13525-11984 (25509)
NO NordhavenCapCTR<$100	Noavg 66¢	$16.83	$17.85	+$1.02	58% 1650-1178 (2828)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 32.8¢	$7.47	$13.65	+$6.18	58% 1251-901 (2152)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Noavg 80.3¢	$12.05	$12.23	+$0.17	55% 4822-4005 (8827)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 39¢	$7.41	$8.36	+$0.95	42% 4866-6823 (11689)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$8.67	$7.65	-$1.02	50% 8681-8611 (17292)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Noavg 76¢	$3.8	$4.07	+$0.27	58% 16066-11724 (27790)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 27¢	$820.13	$0.43	-$29.52	58% 31291-22609 (53900)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$844

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

68%

30682-14740 (45422)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$742.81

Value

$951.42

PnL

+$208.61

Record

57%

1446-1073 (2519)

Both legs:

Yes$415.8939.9¢+$267.46

No$326.9342.1¢-$58.85

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$677.04

Value

$629.49

PnL

-$47.55

Record

52%

16093-14633 (30726)

RN1CTR

Invested

$415.96

Value

$414.14

PnL

-$1.83

Record

55%

43011-35367 (78378)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Invested

$127.75

Value

$90.95

PnL

-$36.8

Record

53%

12053-10832 (22885)

Both legs:

No$96.3561.7¢-$40.88

Yes$31.457.1¢+$4.08

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$65.8

Value

$63

PnL

-$2.8

Record

54%

13611-11436 (25047)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$19.32

Value

$18.28

PnL

-$1.04

Record

53%

13525-11984 (25509)

NordhavenCapCTR<$100

Invested

$16.83

Value

$17.85

PnL

+$1.02

Record

58%

1650-1178 (2828)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.47

Value

$13.65

PnL

+$6.18

Record

58%

1251-901 (2152)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Invested

$12.05

Value

$12.23

PnL

+$0.17

Record

55%

4822-4005 (8827)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$7.41

Value

$8.36

PnL

+$0.95

Record

42%

4866-6823 (11689)

SnakeBall<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.67

Value

$7.65

PnL

-$1.02

Record

50%

8681-8611 (17292)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Invested

$3.8

Value

$4.07

PnL

+$0.27

Record

58%

16066-11724 (27790)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$820.13

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$29.52

Record

58%

31291-22609 (53900)

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.6%

31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$197.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

297.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.