MMA: what top Polymarket traders hold
UFC fights and cards. These are the MMA markets on Polymarket in which at least five of the top traders we track hold a position, with the side most of them hold (the consensus), what share of them hold it and the market's own price for that side.
A consensus is a head count of who holds what, not a probability, and following it did not pay on average in our backtests — see how it works.
- Live consensus markets
- 2
- Recently settled, consensus right
- 10 of 27
- Prices as of
- Oct 25, 07:19 UTC
Live MMA consensus markets (2)
- Will Islam Makhachev be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Traders hold Yes 83%5 of 6 tradersMarket price 96¢$4K held
- Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Traders hold No 40%2 of 5 tradersMarket price 8.9¢$545 heldagainst the market price
Top traders in MMA
Tracked traders with 10 or more settled MMA consensus markets whose side won more often than its entry price implied, ranked by how much (on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short lucky run does not rank first). These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero.
- 1.hedgevaultmainnet1+65 ptsside won 100% of 72 · avg entry 35¢ · ROI +63%
- 2.stochi+63 ptsside won 100% of 33 · avg entry 37¢ · ROI +64%
- 3.alex20011+61 ptsside won 100% of 28 · avg entry 39¢ · ROI +56%
- 4.pieped+59 ptsside won 100% of 26 · avg entry 41¢ · ROI +61%
- 5.acm24+53 ptsside won 96% of 52 · avg entry 43¢ · ROI +52%
- 6.wr0ngw4yb3tt0r+45 ptsside won 100% of 58 · avg entry 55¢ · ROI +47%
- 7.mqww+49 ptsside won 97% of 38 · avg entry 49¢ · ROI +47%
- 8.Amit11111+52 ptsside won 100% of 19 · avg entry 48¢ · ROI +50%
- 9.forsenxd+40 ptsside won 100% of 72 · avg entry 60¢ · ROI +38%
- 10.madkkee+39 ptsside won 100% of 70 · avg entry 61¢ · ROI +38%
Recently settled MMA markets
What the tracked traders held when each market settled, and how it came out. A handful of markets says little about the next one.
- Will Joshua Van fight Manel Kape next?Result: YesTraders held Yes 20%consensus was right
- Will Alexander Volkanovski win by KO or TKO?Result: YesTraders held Yes 57%consensus was right
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Result: YesTraders held No 33%consensus was wrong
- O/U 4.5 RoundsResult: UnderTraders held Over 60%consensus was wrong
- UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight, Main Card)Result: Alexander VolkanovskiTraders held Alexander Volkanovski 49%consensus was right
- Fight to Go the Distance?Result: NoTraders held Yes 50%consensus was wrong
- UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)Result: Petr YanTraders held Merab Dvalishvili 47%consensus was wrong
- Fight to Go the Distance?Result: YesTraders held Yes 71%consensus was right
- O/U 2.5 RoundsResult: UnderTraders held Over 80%consensus was wrong
- Fight to Go the Distance?Result: NoTraders held Yes 40%consensus was wrong
- UFC 333: Ramazan Temirov vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card)Result: Lone'er KavanaghTraders held Lone'er Kavanagh 44%consensus was right
- UFC 333: Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev (Heavyweight, Main Card)Result: Alexander VolkovTraders held Rizvan Kuniev 33%consensus was wrong
Holders update as the tracked traders trade, and prices refresh about once a minute. Only wallets with a position of at least 1 share count as holders; the side is the one with the most money behind it among holders with $100 or more in the market. PolyConsensus is not affiliated with Polymarket and this is not investment advice. More: all topics, the trader leaderboard, large trades.