Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Raptors, while the market favors Timberwolves (51%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Raptors vs. Timberwolves

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (40%) · Raptors at 50¢ · $13K held · ends Oct 25

Raptors50¢Timberwolves50¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

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Contrarian

Raptors

Consensus Traders

Raptors 40%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.7K

Combined PnL

-$62.51

Smart Money Entry

40.3¢ → 49.5¢

+23% since entry · 2 traders

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Timberwolves 51%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Raptors50%

Timberwolves51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raptors2 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares5,143

Combined PnL-$25.72

Timberwolves3 traders

Total Value$961.73

Total Shares1,904

Combined PnL-$36.79

Raptors — 40%Timberwolves — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Late Entry

Low

Score 10/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpTimberwolves 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrTimberwolves 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Timberwolves 67% · 3

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Raptorsavg 48.1¢	$7.3K	$7.3K	-$22.71	55% 11295-9229 (20524)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 48.1¢	$3.8K	$3.9K	+$107.12
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 52.4¢	$3.5K	$3.4K	-$129.83
DO DolphinBallerCTR	Raptorsavg 40¢	$2.0K	$2.5K	-$25	44% 58-73 (131)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 52¢	$3.7K	$1.8K	+$23	58% 31054-22396 (53450)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 46.2¢	$877	$940.5	+$63.5
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 52¢	$936	$909	-$40.5
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Timberwolvesavg 52¢	$520	$505	-$15	69% 4170-1875 (6045)
FO forecastication4	Timberwolvesavg 53¢	$884	$446.42	-$22.1	48% 884-945 (1829)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 57.5¢	$84.07	$80.03	-$4.04	54% 13405-11284 (24689)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 57.5¢	$60.73	$53.3	-$7.43
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 43.2¢	$23.34	$26.73	+$3.39
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Raptorsavg 50¢	$71.5	$70.79	-$0.72	60% 4189-2743 (6932)
AJ AJSV<$100	Timberwolvesavg 49¢	$10	$10.31	+$0.31	36% 12701-22288 (34989)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$7,301.76

Value

$7.3K

PnL

-$22.71

Record

55%

11295-9229 (20524)

Both legs:

Raptors$3,799.9548.1¢+$107.12

Timberwolves$3,501.8152.4¢-$129.83

DolphinBallerCTR

Raptors

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$25

Record

44%

58-73 (131)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$3,685

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$23

Record

58%

31054-22396 (53450)

Both legs:

Raptors$87746.2¢+$63.5

Timberwolves$93652¢-$40.5

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Timberwolves

Invested

$520

Value

$505

PnL

-$15

Record

69%

4170-1875 (6045)

forecastication4

Timberwolves

Invested

$884

Value

$446.42

PnL

-$22.1

Record

48%

884-945 (1829)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$84.07

Value

$80.03

PnL

-$4.04

Record

54%

13405-11284 (24689)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$60.7357.5¢-$7.43

Raptors$23.3443.2¢+$3.39

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$71.5

Value

$70.79

PnL

-$0.72

Record

60%

4189-2743 (6932)

AJSV<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$10

Value

$10.31

PnL

+$0.31

Record

36%

12701-22288 (34989)

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Timberwolves 51%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Late Entry

Low

Score 10/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpTimberwolves 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrTimberwolves 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Timberwolves 67% · 3

Diverging

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raptors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.