Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Sayaka Ishii vs Yulia Putintseva

11 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Yulia Putintseva (58%) · Yulia Putintseva at 78¢ · $73K held · ends Nov 1

Sayaka Ishii23¢Yulia Putintseva77¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yulia Putintseva

Consensus Traders

Yulia Putintseva 58%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$73.4K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Entry

65¢ → 77.5¢

+19% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralYulia Putintseva at 78%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yulia Putintseva

11 of 19 top traders (58%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Sayaka Ishii23%

Yulia Putintseva78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yulia Putintseva11 traders

Total Value$58.2K

Total Shares68,397

Combined PnL-$616.18

Sayaka Ishii8 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares33,974

Combined PnL-$599.71

Yulia Putintseva — 58%Sayaka Ishii — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yulia Putintseva. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYulia Putintseva 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYulia Putintseva 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrSayaka Ishii 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYulia Putintseva 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yulia Putintseva 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Yulia Putintsevaavg 56¢	$21.8K	$22.6K	+$820.35	68% 30779-14814 (45593)
RN1	Yulia Putintsevaavg 75.5¢	$15.8K	$14.1K	$-1.6K	55% 43123-35478 (78601)
HO HomeRunHazard	Yulia Putintsevaavg 67.2¢	$9.4K	$8.8K	-$544.82	55% 11759-9662 (21421)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Sayaka Ishiiavg 21.5¢	$7.3K	$7.5K	+$238.66	59% 13747-9558 (23305)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Yulia Putintsevaavg 62.9¢	$5.3K	$5.5K	+$204.75	53% 12096-10862 (22958)
└ Yulia Putintseva leg	Yulia Putintsevaavg 62.9¢	$3.5K	$4.3K	+$857.48
└ Sayaka Ishii leg	Sayaka Ishiiavg 33¢	$1.9K	$1.2K	-$652.74
OU outloudm	Yulia Putintsevaavg 66.9¢	$5.0K	$4.7K	-$253.36	60% 57-38 (95)
CH chiefphi	Yulia Putintsevaavg 60.3¢	$1.8K	$2.4K	+$606.92	54% 58-49 (107)
IL Illiasca	Yulia Putintsevaavg 66.9¢	$1.6K	$1.9K	+$324.12	64% 219-121 (340)
SE sentrio	Yulia Putintsevaavg 78¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$12.09	49% 10947-11320 (22267)
TH thestingsnake	Yulia Putintsevaavg 70.7¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	+$61.05	60% 3516-2387 (5903)
tradecraftARB<$100	Yulia Putintsevaavg 73¢	$490.82	$1.0K	+$509.67	52% 5490-5090 (10580)
└ Sayaka Ishii leg	Sayaka Ishiiavg 11.1¢	$223.9	$713.55	+$489.65
└ Yulia Putintseva leg	Yulia Putintsevaavg 73¢	$324.75	$286.93	+$20.02
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Sayaka Ishiiavg 50¢	$500	$365	-$135	51% 960-920 (1880)
SA Saber-greedCTR	Sayaka Ishiiavg 22¢	$250.14	$244.45	-$5.69	59% 2251-1567 (3818)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	Sayaka Ishiiavg 64¢	$589.44	$179.6	-$409.84	65% 2717-1462 (4179)
EF efntrickARB<$100	Yulia Putintsevaavg 67.5¢	$163.48	$163.05	-$0.43	48% 3439-3707 (7146)
└ Yulia Putintseva leg	Yulia Putintsevaavg 67.5¢	$108	$125.6	+$17.6
└ Sayaka Ishii leg	Sayaka Ishiiavg 31.9¢	$55.48	$37.45	-$18.03
LS LSS1CTR	Sayaka Ishiiavg 63¢	$408.24	$126.36	-$281.88	71% 1274-509 (1783)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Yulia Putintsevaavg 79.3¢	$90.9	$92.31	+$1.41	63% 22445-13258 (35703)
PA pauleta23<$100	Yulia Putintsevaavg 68.8¢	$60.83	$54.98	-$5.85	71% 17316-6997 (24313)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Sayaka Ishiiavg 47¢	$44.1	$20.64	-$23.46	58% 1363-997 (2360)
FL flatbarrelCTR	Sayaka Ishiiavg 12.1¢	$123.07	$20.42	+$27.67	59% 2578-1777 (4355)
0X 0x1111111111<$100	Yulia Putintsevaavg 62¢	$15.27	$15.1	-$0.17	28% 269-677 (946)
TRCMCTR<$100	Sayaka Ishiiavg 60.5¢	$15	$4.84	-$10.17	57% 3637-2689 (6326)

UpTheBlues

Yulia Putintseva

Invested

$21,818.55

Value

$22.6K

PnL

+$820.35

Record

68%

30779-14814 (45593)

RN1

Yulia Putintseva

Invested

$15,781.32

Value

$14.1K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

55%

43123-35478 (78601)

HomeRunHazard

Yulia Putintseva

Invested

$9,394.06

Value

$8.8K

PnL

-$544.82

Record

55%

11759-9662 (21421)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Sayaka Ishii

Invested

$7,261.16

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$238.66

Record

59%

13747-9558 (23305)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Yulia Putintseva

Invested

$5,337.96

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$204.75

Record

53%

12096-10862 (22958)

Both legs:

Yulia Putintseva$3,462.5662.9¢+$857.48

Sayaka Ishii$1,875.433¢-$652.74

outloudm

Yulia Putintseva

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$253.36

Record

60%

57-38 (95)

chiefphi

Yulia Putintseva

Invested

$1,816.92

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$606.92

Record

54%

58-49 (107)

Illiasca

Yulia Putintseva

Invested

$1,600

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$324.12

Record

64%

219-121 (340)

sentrio

Yulia Putintseva

Invested

$1,886.13

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$12.09

Record

49%

10947-11320 (22267)

thestingsnake

Yulia Putintseva

Invested

$1,569.39

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$61.05

Record

60%

3516-2387 (5903)

tradecraftARB<$100

Yulia Putintseva

Invested

$490.82

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$509.67

Record

52%

5490-5090 (10580)

Both legs:

Sayaka Ishii$223.911.1¢+$489.65

Yulia Putintseva$324.7573¢+$20.02

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Sayaka Ishii

Invested

$500

Value

$365

PnL

-$135

Record

51%

960-920 (1880)

Saber-greedCTR

Sayaka Ishii

Invested

$250.14

Value

$244.45

PnL

-$5.69

Record

59%

2251-1567 (3818)

NatoAlfistaCTR

Sayaka Ishii

Invested

$589.44

Value

$179.6

PnL

-$409.84

Record

65%

2717-1462 (4179)

efntrickARB<$100

Yulia Putintseva

Invested

$163.48

Value

$163.05

PnL

-$0.43

Record

48%

3439-3707 (7146)

Both legs:

Yulia Putintseva$10867.5¢+$17.6

Sayaka Ishii$55.4831.9¢-$18.03

LSS1CTR

Sayaka Ishii

Invested

$408.24

Value

$126.36

PnL

-$281.88

Record

71%

1274-509 (1783)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Yulia Putintseva

Invested

$90.9

Value

$92.31

PnL

+$1.41

Record

63%

22445-13258 (35703)

pauleta23<$100

Yulia Putintseva

Invested

$60.83

Value

$54.98

PnL

-$5.85

Record

71%

17316-6997 (24313)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Sayaka Ishii

Invested

$44.1

Value

$20.64

PnL

-$23.46

Record

58%

1363-997 (2360)

flatbarrelCTR

Sayaka Ishii

Invested

$123.07

Value

$20.42

PnL

+$27.67

Record

59%

2578-1777 (4355)

0x1111111111<$100

Yulia Putintseva

Invested

$15.27

Value

$15.1

PnL

-$0.17

Record

28%

269-677 (946)

TRCMCTR<$100

Sayaka Ishii

Invested

$15

Value

$4.84

PnL

-$10.17

Record

57%

3637-2689 (6326)

Research grade

NeutralYulia Putintseva at 78%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yulia Putintseva

11 of 19 top traders (58%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yulia Putintseva. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYulia Putintseva 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYulia Putintseva 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrSayaka Ishii 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYulia Putintseva 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yulia Putintseva 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yulia Putintseva wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.