Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (51%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will JEF United Ichihara Chiba win on 2026-10-25?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 49¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 25

Yes49¢No51¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

-$403.45

Smart Money Entry

27.8¢ → 49¢

+76% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 49%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes49%

No51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares7,233

Combined PnL-$17.87

No5 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,234

Combined PnL-$385.58

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 21.5¢	$938.69	$1.6K	+$708.74	52% 16123-14661 (30784)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 21.5¢	$564.52	$1.3K	+$710.13
└ No leg	Noavg 51.7¢	$374.16	$372.78	-$1.39
KY Kyn008CTR	Yesavg 20¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$0	51% 189-184 (373)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Yesavg 47.3¢	$945	$930	-$15	51% 955-914 (1869)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 80¢	$1.2K	$836.89	-$368.53	68% 30725-14776 (45501)
RN1	Noavg 51¢	$714.08	$700.08	-$14	55% 43048-35397 (78445)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 51¢	$99.96	$98	-$1.96	51% 6434-6236 (12670)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 80¢	$91.67	$89.95	-$1.72	58% 1321-965 (2286)
RO Rocko33CTR<$100	Yesavg 44.4¢	$31.1	$27.65	-$3.45	64% 851-474 (1325)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 77¢	$16.3	$16.93	+$0.64	58% 31334-22653 (53987)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$11.02	$11.6	+$0.58	50% 8710-8632 (17342)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$7.27	$7.27	+$0	53% 13537-11986 (25523)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$938.69

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$708.74

Record

52%

16123-14661 (30784)

Both legs:

Yes$564.5221.5¢+$710.13

No$374.1651.7¢-$1.39

Kyn008CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,013.76

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

189-184 (373)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Yes

Invested

$945

Value

$930

PnL

-$15

Record

51%

955-914 (1869)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,205.42

Value

$836.89

PnL

-$368.53

Record

68%

30725-14776 (45501)

RN1

Invested

$714.08

Value

$700.08

PnL

-$14

Record

55%

43048-35397 (78445)

foooool<$100

Invested

$99.96

Value

$98

PnL

-$1.96

Record

51%

6434-6236 (12670)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$91.67

Value

$89.95

PnL

-$1.72

Record

58%

1321-965 (2286)

Rocko33CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.1

Value

$27.65

PnL

-$3.45

Record

64%

851-474 (1325)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$16.3

Value

$16.93

PnL

+$0.64

Record

58%

31334-22653 (53987)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.02

Value

$11.6

PnL

+$0.58

Record

50%

8710-8632 (17342)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.27

Value

$7.27

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

13537-11986 (25523)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 49%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.2%

49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$95.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

195.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.