Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (83%). 7 of 25 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-10-24?

7 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (28%) · Yes at 18¢ · $182K held · ended Oct 25

Yes18¢No82¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔄

Contrarian

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 28%

Total Value

$181.8K

Combined PnL

$9.9K

Smart Money Entry

43.4¢ → 17.5¢

-60% since entry · 7 traders

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 25 top traders (28%)Underdog side (market favors No 83%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$75.0K

Total Shares194,842

Combined PnL$-9.5K

No18 traders

Total Value$106.8K

Total Shares143,002

Combined PnL+$19.3K

Yes — 28%No — 72%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Late Entry

Low

Score 10/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

10% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 8

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 86% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 88% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OH OhWhenTheRedsCTR	Yesavg 43.3¢	$82.8K	$73.7K	$-9.1K	46% 50-59 (109)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 56.3¢	$28.8K	$42.0K	+$13.2K	68% 30682-14740 (45422)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Noavg 55.8¢	$12.4K	$13.6K	+$1.3K	50% 1764-1773 (3537)
RN1	Noavg 57.3¢	$12.1K	$13.6K	+$1.5K	55% 43011-35367 (78378)
oieshfn345	Noavg 56.2¢	$5.2K	$6.3K	+$1.1K	57% 1446-1073 (2519)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 55.3¢	$4.2K	$5.3K	+$548.25	52% 16093-14633 (30726)
HI hi774c	Noavg 56.8¢	$4.7K	$5.1K	+$386.33	56% 4192-3316 (7508)
FO forecastication4	Noavg 57¢	$4.7K	$5.1K	+$370.22	48% 911-971 (1882)
CA Cannae	Noavg 56.8¢	$4.0K	$4.3K	+$321.2	53% 13525-11984 (25509)
us391	Noavg 55.8¢	$3.5K	$3.8K	+$354.43	51% 1341-1265 (2606)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 58.3¢	$6.0K	$3.7K	-$39.6	58% 31291-22609 (53900)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Yesavg 47.9¢	$1.6K	$1.3K	-$320.11	61% 4327-2785 (7112)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 57¢	$855	$922.5	+$67.5	51% 945-911 (1856)
0xheavy888	Noavg 57.8¢	$882	$892	+$10	55% 6288-5054 (11342)
HRTrading	Noavg 56.5¢	$651.28	$823.69	+$172.41	58% 1251-901 (2152)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Noavg 59.5¢	$340.11	$344.28	+$4.16	54% 13611-11436 (25047)
BA Bayupati	Noavg 57¢	$285	$307.5	+$22.5	50% 152-152 (304)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 57.3¢	$316.59	$305.22	-$11.37	53% 12053-10832 (22885)
tradecraft	Noavg 57¢	$188.11	$202.88	+$14.77	52% 5479-5082 (10561)
SL slimjoe	Noavg 57.7¢	$168.56	$179.58	+$11.02	52% 5316-4922 (10238)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$3.15	$4.03	+$0.88	71% 17250-6966 (24216)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$1.7	$3.88	+$2.18	58% 16066-11724 (27790)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 72.5¢	$7.25	$3.85	-$3.4	55% 4822-4005 (8827)
LS LSB1CTR<$100	Yesavg 67¢	$4.02	$2.31	-$1.71	77% 1571-463 (2034)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 50.3¢	$1.95	$0.83	-$1.11	50% 8681-8611 (17292)

OhWhenTheRedsCTR

Yes

Invested

$82,822.1

Value

$73.7K

PnL

$-9.1K

Record

46%

50-59 (109)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$28,802.26

Value

$42.0K

PnL

+$13.2K

Record

68%

30682-14740 (45422)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Invested

$12,384.78

Value

$13.6K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

50%

1764-1773 (3537)

RN1

Invested

$12,125.01

Value

$13.6K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

55%

43011-35367 (78378)

oieshfn345

Invested

$5,152.52

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

57%

1446-1073 (2519)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$4,243.55

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$548.25

Record

52%

16093-14633 (30726)

hi774c

Invested

$4,679.92

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$386.33

Record

56%

4192-3316 (7508)

forecastication4

Invested

$4,689.39

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$370.22

Record

48%

911-971 (1882)

Cannae

Invested

$3,978.93

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$321.2

Record

53%

13525-11984 (25509)

us391

Invested

$3,450.12

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$354.43

Record

51%

1341-1265 (2606)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$6,049.97

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$39.6

Record

58%

31291-22609 (53900)

Forecastication2CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,635.81

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$320.11

Record

61%

4327-2785 (7112)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$855

Value

$922.5

PnL

+$67.5

Record

51%

945-911 (1856)

0xheavy888

Invested

$882

Value

$892

PnL

+$10

Record

55%

6288-5054 (11342)

HRTrading

Invested

$651.28

Value

$823.69

PnL

+$172.41

Record

58%

1251-901 (2152)

LeLynxMalynx

Invested

$340.11

Value

$344.28

PnL

+$4.16

Record

54%

13611-11436 (25047)

Bayupati

Invested

$285

Value

$307.5

PnL

+$22.5

Record

50%

152-152 (304)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$316.59

Value

$305.22

PnL

-$11.37

Record

53%

12053-10832 (22885)

tradecraft

Invested

$188.11

Value

$202.88

PnL

+$14.77

Record

52%

5479-5082 (10561)

slimjoe

Invested

$168.56

Value

$179.58

PnL

+$11.02

Record

52%

5316-4922 (10238)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.15

Value

$4.03

PnL

+$0.88

Record

71%

17250-6966 (24216)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.7

Value

$3.88

PnL

+$2.18

Record

58%

16066-11724 (27790)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.25

Value

$3.85

PnL

-$3.4

Record

55%

4822-4005 (8827)

LSB1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.02

Value

$2.31

PnL

-$1.71

Record

77%

1571-463 (2034)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.95

Value

$0.83

PnL

-$1.11

Record

50%

8681-8611 (17292)

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 25 top traders (28%)Underdog side (market favors No 83%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Late Entry

Low

Score 10/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

10% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 8

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 86% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 88% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance19.3%

17.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$419.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

519.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.