Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 14 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship?

14 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 1.6¢ · $2K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 88%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Entry

2.5¢ → 1.6¢

-38% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 16 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes14 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares150,357

Combined PnL$-1.4K

No2 traders

Total Value$29.08

Total Shares30

Combined PnL-$0.01

Yes — 88%No — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Late

4759h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

73 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 91% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 91% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x3mf379C47E653dafa153841a995Cf975B6a02fxdCTR	Yesavg 2.8¢	$1.5K	$812.42	-$679.6	68% 297-139 (436)
LiquidatedDegenCTR	Yesavg 2.6¢	$626.02	$426.47	-$187.68	42% 1078-1462 (2540)
NooseracCTR	Yesavg 1.3¢	$342.51	$406.94	+$64.44	52% 5751-5327 (11078)
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$584.83	$334.71	-$250.12	54% 583-504 (1087)
LE leegunnerCTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$259.91	$159.92	-$99.99	41% 1278-1824 (3102)
probabilityCTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$52.32	$114.88	-$68.91	41% 1354-1916 (3270)
DEGENKHANCTR	Yesavg 2.4¢	$100.06	$83.36	-$16.7	66% 1105-564 (1669)
BT BTCGambler247CTR	Yesavg 3.8¢	$110.15	$44.95	-$65.2	47% 217-240 (457)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$24.33	$24.16	-$0.17	33% 6261-12977 (19238)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR	Yesavg 2.1¢	$180.68	$12.86	-$60.33	77% 11162-3417 (14579)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$4.8	$12.4	+$7.6	18% 522-2339 (2861)
TY TyshaCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$58.98	$10.12	-$8.85	73% 8251-3122 (11373)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$14.25	$9	-$5.25	57% 3057-2313 (5370)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$16.98	$8.81	-$8.17	57% 13381-10228 (23609)
0X 0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100	Noavg 95.3¢	$5	$4.92	+$0.16	73% 40-15 (55)
0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$53.55	$4.55	+$4.67	49% 1819-1894 (3713)

0x3mf379C47E653dafa153841a995Cf975B6a02fxdCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,492.02

Value

$812.42

PnL

-$679.6

Record

68%

297-139 (436)

LiquidatedDegenCTR

Yes

Invested

$626.02

Value

$426.47

PnL

-$187.68

Record

42%

1078-1462 (2540)

NooseracCTR

Yes

Invested

$342.51

Value

$406.94

PnL

+$64.44

Record

52%

5751-5327 (11078)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Yes

Invested

$584.83

Value

$334.71

PnL

-$250.12

Record

54%

583-504 (1087)

leegunnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$259.91

Value

$159.92

PnL

-$99.99

Record

41%

1278-1824 (3102)

probabilityCTR

Yes

Invested

$52.32

Value

$114.88

PnL

-$68.91

Record

41%

1354-1916 (3270)

DEGENKHANCTR

Yes

Invested

$100.06

Value

$83.36

PnL

-$16.7

Record

66%

1105-564 (1669)

BTCGambler247CTR

Yes

Invested

$110.15

Value

$44.95

PnL

-$65.2

Record

47%

217-240 (457)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Invested

$24.33

Value

$24.16

PnL

-$0.17

Record

33%

6261-12977 (19238)

Elias.ThornwellCTR

Yes

Invested

$180.68

Value

$12.86

PnL

-$60.33

Record

77%

11162-3417 (14579)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.8

Value

$12.4

PnL

+$7.6

Record

18%

522-2339 (2861)

TyshaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.98

Value

$10.12

PnL

-$8.85

Record

73%

8251-3122 (11373)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.25

Value

PnL

-$5.25

Record

57%

3057-2313 (5370)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.98

Value

$8.81

PnL

-$8.17

Record

57%

13381-10228 (23609)

0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100

Invested

Value

$4.92

PnL

+$0.16

Record

73%

40-15 (55)

0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.55

Value

$4.55

PnL

+$4.67

Record

49%

1819-1894 (3713)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 16 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Late

4759h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

73 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 91% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 91% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.7%

1.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3639.37

Max Loss

-$100.00

3739.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.