Melbourne United vs. Sydney Kings

12 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Melbourne United (80%) · Melbourne United at 91¢ · $28K held · ends Nov 1

Melbourne United91¢Sydney Kings9¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Melbourne United

Consensus Traders

Melbourne United 80%

Total Value

$27.5K

Combined PnL

$2.2K

Smart Money Entry

47.8¢ → 91¢

+90% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidMelbourne United at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Melbourne United

12 of 15 top traders (80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Melbourne United91%

Sydney Kings9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Melbourne United12 traders

Total Value$22.1K

Total Shares32,923

Combined PnL+$2.5K

Sydney Kings3 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares15,220

Combined PnL-$264.21

Melbourne United — 80%Sydney Kings — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Melbourne United. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMelbourne United 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpSydney Kings 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrMelbourne United 73% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedMelbourne United 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Melbourne United 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Melbourne Unitedavg 46.5¢	$9.2K	$11.9K	+$2.7K	47% 317-363 (680)
TI tin54321	Melbourne Unitedavg 48.1¢	$8.9K	$8.7K	-$199.01	64% 43-24 (67)
TO torta.techCTR	Sydney Kingsavg 53.6¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	-$54.28	75% 6019-2013 (8032)
BI BIAVNCTR	Sydney Kingsavg 11¢	$621.11	$508.18	-$112.93	51% 195-191 (386)
OM omnibus-076daa	Melbourne Unitedavg 45.4¢	$375.71	$449.14	+$73.43	59% 13747-9558 (23305)
HRTrading	Melbourne Unitedavg 86.3¢	$293.15	$271.46	-$21.69	58% 1363-997 (2360)
tradecraft	Melbourne Unitedavg 43.1¢	$111.77	$235.79	+$124.03	52% 5490-5090 (10580)
probability	Melbourne Unitedavg 40.3¢	$170.75	$199.28	+$28.53	42% 1214-1657 (2871)
LS LSS1	Melbourne Unitedavg 82¢	$584.4	$172.81	-$277.48	71% 1274-509 (1783)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Melbourne Unitedavg 45¢	$54.54	$56.96	+$2.42	65% 2717-1462 (4179)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR	Sydney Kingsavg 45.8¢	$137.5	$40.5	-$97	47% 3570-4020 (7590)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Melbourne Unitedavg 41¢	$19.3	$22.13	+$2.83	50% 7629-7782 (15411)
RL RLWG<$100	Melbourne Unitedavg 43¢	$6.45	$7.05	+$0.6	51% 3533-3400 (6933)
GG GGLPL<$100	Melbourne Unitedavg 45.5¢	$5.32	$5.5	+$0.18	50% 607-603 (1210)
VeryLucky888	Melbourne Unitedavg 41.6¢	$108.86	$3.99	+$2.26	58% 31395-22700 (54095)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Melbourne United

Invested

$9,163.65

Value

$11.9K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

47%

317-363 (680)

tin54321

Melbourne United

Invested

$8,935.66

Value

$8.7K

PnL

-$199.01

Record

64%

43-24 (67)

torta.techCTR

Sydney Kings

Invested

$4,969.48

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$54.28

Record

75%

6019-2013 (8032)

BIAVNCTR

Sydney Kings

Invested

$621.11

Value

$508.18

PnL

-$112.93

Record

51%

195-191 (386)

omnibus-076daa

Melbourne United

Invested

$375.71

Value

$449.14

PnL

+$73.43

Record

59%

13747-9558 (23305)

HRTrading

Melbourne United

Invested

$293.15

Value

$271.46

PnL

-$21.69

Record

58%

1363-997 (2360)

tradecraft

Melbourne United

Invested

$111.77

Value

$235.79

PnL

+$124.03

Record

52%

5490-5090 (10580)

probability

Melbourne United

Invested

$170.75

Value

$199.28

PnL

+$28.53

Record

42%

1214-1657 (2871)

LSS1

Melbourne United

Invested

$584.4

Value

$172.81

PnL

-$277.48

Record

71%

1274-509 (1783)

NatoAlfista<$100

Melbourne United

Invested

$54.54

Value

$56.96

PnL

+$2.42

Record

65%

2717-1462 (4179)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR

Sydney Kings

Invested

$137.5

Value

$40.5

PnL

-$97

Record

47%

3570-4020 (7590)

LuckyLoo<$100

Melbourne United

Invested

$19.3

Value

$22.13

PnL

+$2.83

Record

50%

7629-7782 (15411)

RLWG<$100

Melbourne United

Invested

$6.45

Value

$7.05

PnL

+$0.6

Record

51%

3533-3400 (6933)

GGLPL<$100

Melbourne United

Invested

$5.32

Value

$5.5

PnL

+$0.18

Record

50%

607-603 (1210)

VeryLucky888

Melbourne United

Invested

$108.86

Value

$3.99

PnL

+$2.26

Record

58%

31395-22700 (54095)

Research grade

AvoidMelbourne United at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Melbourne United

12 of 15 top traders (80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Melbourne United. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMelbourne United 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpSydney Kings 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrMelbourne United 73% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedMelbourne United 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Melbourne United 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Melbourne United wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.4%

91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.