Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-10-25?
7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 96¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 70%
$1.8K
$660.24
47.5¢ → 95.5¢
+101% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KY Kyn008 | Noavg 43¢ | $661.26 | $1.1K | +$461.34 | 51% 189-185 (374) |
 RN1 | Noavg 45.1¢ | $107.14 | $213.31 | +$106.17 | 55% 43123-35478 (78601) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 77.5¢ | $106.07 | $126.35 | +$20.27 | 68% 30779-14814 (45593) |
FO foooool | Noavg 77.7¢ | $103.68 | $108.69 | +$5.01 | 51% 6464-6262 (12726) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $56.95 | $90.37 | +$33.43 | 50% 7629-7782 (15411) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 43.3¢ | $36.8 | $55.62 | +$18.82 | 53% 13553-11995 (25548) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $14.58 | $22.64 | +$8.06 | 58% 1363-997 (2360) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $13.31 | $14.64 | +$1.33 | 52% 16158-14689 (30847) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $8.74 | $13.11 | +$4.37 | 50% 8728-8659 (17387) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 54.5¢ | $6.06 | $7.49 | +$1.43 | 58% 31395-22700 (54095) |
Invested
$661.26
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$461.34
Record
51%
189-185 (374)
RN1Invested
$107.14
Value
$213.31
PnL
+$106.17
Record
55%
43123-35478 (78601)
Invested
$106.07
Value
$126.35
PnL
+$20.27
Record
68%
30779-14814 (45593)
Invested
$103.68
Value
$108.69
PnL
+$5.01
Record
51%
6464-6262 (12726)
Invested
$56.95
Value
$90.37
PnL
+$33.43
Record
50%
7629-7782 (15411)
Invested
$36.8
Value
$55.62
PnL
+$18.82
Record
53%
13553-11995 (25548)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$14.58
Value
$22.64
PnL
+$8.06
Record
58%
1363-997 (2360)
Invested
$13.31
Value
$14.64
PnL
+$1.33
Record
52%
16158-14689 (30847)
Invested
$8.74
Value
$13.11
PnL
+$4.37
Record
50%
8728-8659 (17387)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$6.06
Value
$7.49
PnL
+$1.43
Record
58%
31395-22700 (54095)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.