F1: what top Polymarket traders hold
Formula 1 races and championships. These are the F1 markets on Polymarket in which at least five of the top traders we track hold a position, with the side most of them hold (the consensus), what share of them hold it and the market's own price for that side.
A consensus is a head count of who holds what, not a probability, and following it did not pay on average in our backtests — see how it works.
- Live consensus markets
- 13
- Recently settled, consensus right
- 3 of 5
- Prices as of
- Oct 25, 07:19 UTC
Live F1 consensus markets (13)
- Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Traders hold Yes 86%18 of 21 tradersMarket price 99¢$297K held
- Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Traders hold Yes 75%9 of 12 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$5K heldagainst the market price
- Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Traders hold Yes 83%10 of 12 tradersMarket price 0.8¢$2K heldagainst the market price
- Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?Traders hold Yes 50%5 of 10 tradersMarket price 98¢$5K held
- Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Traders hold Yes 80%8 of 10 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$1K heldagainst the market price
- Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Traders hold Yes 100%10 of 10 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$37 heldagainst the market price
- Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?Traders hold No 13%1 of 8 tradersMarket price 99¢$10K held
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?Traders hold No 33%2 of 8 tradersMarket price 55¢$7K held
- Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Traders hold Yes 86%6 of 7 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$163 heldagainst the market price
- Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?Traders hold No 80%4 of 6 tradersMarket price 59¢$6K held
- Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?Traders hold Yes 83%5 of 6 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$30 heldagainst the market price
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?Traders hold No 80%4 of 5 tradersMarket price 93¢$2K held
- Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?Traders hold No 60%3 of 5 tradersMarket price 98¢$1K held
Top traders in F1
Tracked traders with 10 or more settled F1 consensus markets whose side won more often than its entry price implied, ranked by how much (on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short lucky run does not rank first). These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero.
- 1.Syrrok+33 ptsside won 100% of 24 · avg entry 67¢ · ROI +26%
- 2.jizzbucket57+20 ptsside won 96% of 143 · avg entry 75¢ · ROI −13%
- 3.Atomforge+27 ptsside won 95% of 38 · avg entry 68¢ · ROI +26%
- 4.PLACEYOURBETS123+40 ptsside won 92% of 13 · avg entry 53¢ · ROI +2%
- 5.P1kaso+21 ptsside won 94% of 62 · avg entry 73¢ · ROI +25%
- 6.Scotty155+12 ptsside won 18% of 488 · avg entry 6¢ · ROI +7%
- 7.StarMaster+34 ptsside won 92% of 13 · avg entry 58¢ · ROI +41%
- 8.0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188+12 ptsside won 98% of 62 · avg entry 86¢ · ROI −12%
- 9.JAMJAMJAM4+32 ptsside won 100% of 10 · avg entry 68¢ · ROI +30%
- 10.0010001000001100+20 ptsside won 85% of 26 · avg entry 64¢ · ROI +13%
Recently settled F1 markets
What the tracked traders held when each market settled, and how it came out. A handful of markets says little about the next one.
- Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?Result: NoTraders held No 67%consensus was right
- Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?Result: NoTraders held No 83%consensus was right
- Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?Result: YesTraders held No 80%consensus was wrong
- Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?Result: NoTraders held Yes 80%consensus was wrong
- Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?Result: NoTraders held No 80%consensus was right
Holders update as the tracked traders trade, and prices refresh about once a minute. Only wallets with a position of at least 1 share count as holders; the side is the one with the most money behind it among holders with $100 or more in the market. PolyConsensus is not affiliated with Polymarket and this is not investment advice. More: all topics, the trader leaderboard, large trades.