Guangzhou Open, Qualification: Tatiana Prozorova vs Joanna Garland

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Tatiana Prozorova (40%) · Tatiana Prozorova at 52¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 1

Tatiana Prozorova52¢Joanna Garland48¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Tatiana Prozorova

Consensus Traders

Tatiana Prozorova 40%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.4K

Combined PnL

-$258.78

Smart Money Entry

61.5¢ → 51.5¢

-16% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralTatiana Prozorova at 52%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tatiana Prozorova

4 of 10 top traders (40%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Tatiana Prozorova52%

Joanna Garland49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tatiana Prozorova4 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,764

Combined PnL-$95.75

Joanna Garland6 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,425

Combined PnL-$163.03

Tatiana Prozorova — 40%Joanna Garland — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Tatiana Prozorovaavg 74.8¢	$13.2K	$12.0K	$-1.2K	68% 30725-14776 (45501)
└ Tatiana Prozorova leg	Tatiana Prozorovaavg 74.8¢	$9.6K	$7.0K	$-2.6K
└ Joanna Garland leg	Joanna Garlandavg 32.5¢	$3.5K	$5.0K	+$1.4K
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Tatiana Prozorovaavg 73.2¢	$6.5K	$5.7K	-$724.8	55% 11733-9634 (21367)
└ Tatiana Prozorova leg	Tatiana Prozorovaavg 73.2¢	$4.2K	$3.9K	-$268.07
└ Joanna Garland leg	Joanna Garlandavg 39.4¢	$2.3K	$1.8K	-$456.74
RN1	Tatiana Prozorovaavg 61.6¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$117.73	55% 43048-35397 (78445)
CH chiefphiCTR	Joanna Garlandavg 49.9¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$203.81	54% 57-49 (106)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Tatiana Prozorovaavg 48.3¢	$601.19	$815.23	+$214.04	53% 12075-10844 (22919)
└ Tatiana Prozorova leg	Tatiana Prozorovaavg 48.3¢	$313.19	$535.23	+$222.04
└ Joanna Garland leg	Joanna Garlandavg 18¢	$288	$280	-$8
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Tatiana Prozorovaavg 62¢	$587.63	$608.61	+$20.98	53% 2351-2095 (4446)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Joanna Garlandavg 19¢	$310.85	$160.14	+$40.79	60% 3512-2387 (5899)
EF efntrickARB<$100	Tatiana Prozorovaavg 60.3¢	$105.32	$112.79	+$7.47	48% 3435-3706 (7141)
└ Tatiana Prozorova leg	Tatiana Prozorovaavg 60.3¢	$62.99	$72.62	+$9.63
└ Joanna Garland leg	Joanna Garlandavg 32.1¢	$42.33	$40.17	-$2.16
HRTrading<$100	Tatiana Prozorovaavg 58¢	$32.88	$33.63	+$0.75	58% 1321-965 (2286)
VeryLucky888<$100	Tatiana Prozorovaavg 57¢	$28.5	$28.39	+$0.25	58% 31334-22653 (53987)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Joanna Garlandavg 42¢	$9.12	$9.23	+$0.11	65% 12536-6655 (19191)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Joanna Garlandavg 21¢	$2.1	$2.05	-$0.05	52% 5483-5086 (10569)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Joanna Garlandavg 22¢	$2.1	$1.96	-$0.14	71% 17270-6975 (24245)
TRCMCTR<$100	Joanna Garlandavg 30¢	$1.5	$1.58	+$0.07	58% 3636-2686 (6322)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Tatiana Prozorova

Invested

$13,178.9

Value

$12.0K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

68%

30725-14776 (45501)

Both legs:

Tatiana Prozorova$9,635.174.8¢$-2.6K

Joanna Garland$3,543.832.5¢+$1.4K

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Tatiana Prozorova

Invested

$6,465.41

Value

$5.7K

PnL

-$724.8

Record

55%

11733-9634 (21367)

Both legs:

Tatiana Prozorova$4,179.1173.2¢-$268.07

Joanna Garland$2,286.339.4¢-$456.74

RN1

Tatiana Prozorova

Invested

$1,823.16

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$117.73

Record

55%

43048-35397 (78445)

chiefphiCTR

Joanna Garland

Invested

$1,372.91

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$203.81

Record

54%

57-49 (106)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Tatiana Prozorova

Invested

$601.19

Value

$815.23

PnL

+$214.04

Record

53%

12075-10844 (22919)

Both legs:

Tatiana Prozorova$313.1948.3¢+$222.04

Joanna Garland$28818¢-$8

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Tatiana Prozorova

Invested

$587.63

Value

$608.61

PnL

+$20.98

Record

53%

2351-2095 (4446)

thestingsnakeCTR

Joanna Garland

Invested

$310.85

Value

$160.14

PnL

+$40.79

Record

60%

3512-2387 (5899)

efntrickARB<$100

Tatiana Prozorova

Invested

$105.32

Value

$112.79

PnL

+$7.47

Record

48%

3435-3706 (7141)

Both legs:

Tatiana Prozorova$62.9960.3¢+$9.63

Joanna Garland$42.3332.1¢-$2.16

HRTrading<$100

Tatiana Prozorova

Invested

$32.88

Value

$33.63

PnL

+$0.75

Record

58%

1321-965 (2286)

VeryLucky888<$100

Tatiana Prozorova

Invested

$28.5

Value

$28.39

PnL

+$0.25

Record

58%

31334-22653 (53987)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Joanna Garland

Invested

$9.12

Value

$9.23

PnL

+$0.11

Record

65%

12536-6655 (19191)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Joanna Garland

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.05

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

5483-5086 (10569)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Joanna Garland

Invested

$2.1

Value

$1.96

PnL

-$0.14

Record

71%

17270-6975 (24245)

TRCMCTR<$100

Joanna Garland

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.58

PnL

+$0.07

Record

58%

3636-2686 (6322)

Research grade

NeutralTatiana Prozorova at 52%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Tatiana Prozorova

4 of 10 top traders (40%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tatiana Prozorova wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.