Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (54%). 1 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-25?

1 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (9%) · No at 47¢ · $71K held · ends Oct 25

Yes54¢No46¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔄

Contrarian

Consensus Traders

No 9%

Total Value

$71.2K

Combined PnL

$2.1K

Smart Money Signal

1 of 11 top traders (9%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 54%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes54%

No47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$40.6K

Total Shares87,404

Combined PnL+$164.83

Yes10 traders

Total Value$30.6K

Total Shares53,534

Combined PnL+$1.9K

No — 9%Yes — 91%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Late Entry

Low

Score 10/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hovistomaradonaCTR	Noavg 46.3¢	$40.5K	$40.6K	+$164.83	— 4-2 (6)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 54¢	$8.2K	$8.7K	+$601.7	58% 31291-22609 (53900)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Yesavg 53¢	$8.0K	$8.7K	+$750	47% 1949-2172 (4121)
CA Cannae	Yesavg 53.8¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	-$21.81	53% 13525-11984 (25509)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 54¢	$2.7K	$2.9K	+$198.77	52% 16093-14633 (30726)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Yesavg 54¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$160	69% 4193-1893 (6086)
HI hi774c	Yesavg 53¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$121.04	56% 4192-3316 (7508)
SN SnakeBall	Yesavg 53¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$12.66	50% 8681-8611 (17292)
DA darkumbreon88	Yesavg 55¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$54.95	65% 1519-811 (2330)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Yesavg 53.6¢	$115.84	$125.28	+$9.44	54% 13611-11436 (25047)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$23.82	$25.12	+$0.65	92% 2279-197 (2476)

hovistomaradonaCTR

Invested

$40,477.81

Value

$40.6K

PnL

+$164.83

Record

—

4-2 (6)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$8,158.14

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$601.7

Record

58%

31291-22609 (53900)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Yes

Invested

$7,950

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$750

Record

47%

1949-2172 (4121)

Cannae

Yes

Invested

$4,049.28

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$21.81

Record

53%

13525-11984 (25509)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$2,679

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$198.77

Record

52%

16093-14633 (30726)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Yes

Invested

$2,160

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$160

Record

69%

4193-1893 (6086)

hi774c

Yes

Invested

$1,283.06

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$121.04

Record

56%

4192-3316 (7508)

SnakeBall

Yes

Invested

$1,341.96

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$12.66

Record

50%

8681-8611 (17292)

darkumbreon88

Yes

Invested

$1,007.42

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$54.95

Record

65%

1519-811 (2330)

LeLynxMalynx

Yes

Invested

$115.84

Value

$125.28

PnL

+$9.44

Record

54%

13611-11436 (25047)

thatsabing0<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.82

Value

$25.12

PnL

+$0.65

Record

92%

2279-197 (2476)

Smart Money Signal

1 of 11 top traders (9%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 54%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Late Entry

Low

Score 10/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.