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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
ferrariChampions2026l..messiprimmRN1
Record (consensus markets)44% (11396–14488, n=25884)57% (1110–846, n=1956)50% (1248–1261, n=2509)48% (17938–19366, n=37304)
Consensus PnL-$8.8M$84K$3.6M$14.9M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #87was PM monthly #787PM monthly #46PM monthly #32 + pinned
Sides with the consensus66% (25 of 38 open)50% (1 of 2 open)60% (3 of 5 open)56% (38 of 68 open)
Strongest topics
Weakest topic————
Settled positions, side won100% of 5556 at avg 60¢, ROI +8%63% of 1537 at avg 58¢, ROI +3%99% of 1027 at avg 50¢, ROI +51%94% of 26124 at avg 59¢, ROI +35%
Entries under 30¢4% (won 97% of 237)28% (won 12% of 436)5% (won 94% of 51)10% (won 57% of 2594)
Entries 30–50¢26% (won 100% of 1446)10% (won 38% of 160)41% (won 99% of 421)22% (won 94% of 5704)
Entries 50–70¢40% (won 100% of 2198)15% (won 75% of 225)49% (won 99% of 508)35% (won 99% of 9204)
Entries 70¢ and up30% (won 100% of 1675)47% (won 97% of 716)5% (won 100% of 47)33% (won 100% of 8622)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

13 on the same side, 9 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketferrariChampions2026l..messiprimmRN1
Spread: Bears (-6.5)
same side · consensus Buccaneers
Bears $27K—Bears $5.8KBears $28K
Spread: Mavericks (-7.5)
opposite sides · consensus Mavericks
Nets $22K——Mavericks $1.7K
Buccaneers vs. Bears: O/U 46.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
Under $629—Over $16K—
Buccaneers vs. Bears
opposite sides · consensus Bears
——Buccaneers $1.5KBears $7.9K
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
Under $1.2K——Over $1.7K
Spread: Bears (-14.5)
opposite sides · consensus Buccaneers
Bears $318——Buccaneers $2.4K
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 2 Winner
opposite sides · consensus T1
Bilibili Gaming $5T1 $2.5K——
Spread: Mavericks (-9.5)
opposite sides · consensus Nets
Nets $943——Mavericks $1.0K
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 4 Winner
opposite sides · consensus T1
T1 $1.6KBilibili Gaming $110——
Spread: Bears (-5.5)
opposite sides · consensus Buccaneers
Buccaneers $26——Bears $877
WTA Finals, Group A: Coco Gauff vs Jessica Pegula
same side · consensus Coco Gauff
Coco Gauff $91K——Coco Gauff $58K
Knoxville: Patrick Zahraj vs Sebastian Dominko
same side · consensus Patrick Zahraj
Patrick Zahraj $65K——Patrick Zahraj $5.8K
Nets vs. Mavericks
same side · consensus Mavericks
Mavericks $43K——Mavericks $18K
Penguins vs. Ducks
same side · consensus Ducks
Ducks $34K——Ducks $955
Spread: Celtics (-12.5)
same side · consensus Celtics
Celtics $28K——Celtics $1.3K
Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 222.5
same side · consensus Under
Under $19K——Under $499
Spread: Bears (-13.5)
same side · consensus Buccaneers
Buccaneers $13K—Buccaneers $4.0K—
Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)
same side · consensus Jazz
Timberwolves $11K——Timberwolves $2.7K
Jazz vs. Timberwolves: O/U 222.5
same side · consensus Over
Under $9.4K——Under $2.9K
Spread: Heat (-10.5)
same side · consensus Heat
Kings $4.5K——Kings $1.2K
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: 1st Half O/U 0.5
same side · consensus Under
Over $1.3K——Over $360
Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 220.5
same side · consensus Under
Under $115——Under $744