Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Jazz, while the market favors Timberwolves (53%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (70%) · Jazz at 48¢ · $34K held · ends Nov 9

Timberwolves53¢Jazz47¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 70%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$33.7K

Combined PnL

-$273.64

Smart Money Entry

51.1¢ → 47.5¢

-7% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Timberwolves 53%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Timberwolves53%

Jazz48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Timberwolves3 traders

Total Value$11.8K

Total Shares22,522

Combined PnL+$737.44

Jazz7 traders

Total Value$14.4K

Total Shares30,148

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Timberwolves — 30%Jazz — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJazz 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrJazz 78% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Timberwolvesavg 49¢	$20.1K	$10.5K	+$702.6	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Jazzavg 51¢	$7.8K	$7.3K	-$537.56	49% 507-531 (1038)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Jazzavg 50.7¢	$5.2K	$5.3K	+$63.71	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 48¢	$2.5K	$2.8K	+$235.43
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 50.7¢	$2.7K	$2.5K	-$171.72
nehcnehcCTR	Jazzavg 52¢	$4.7K	$4.3K	-$409.34	61% 4520-2835 (7355)
HI hi774cCTR	Jazzavg 50¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$0.94	46% 5609-6517 (12126)
73 739633786	Timberwolvesavg 51.1¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$33.59	44% 442-560 (1002)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Jazzavg 50¢	$1.0K	$950	-$50	55% 824-676 (1500)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Jazzavg 50.5¢	$615.84	$619.34	+$3.5	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 50.5¢	$353.43	$332.5	+$3.5
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 48.4¢	$264.17	$286.84	+$0
GC GC-PARB<$100	Jazzavg 50.5¢	$1.1K	$516.25	-$5.25	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 50.5¢	$353.43	$332.5	-$21
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 48¢	$168	$183.75	+$15.75
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Jazzavg 49.5¢	$750	$500	+$14.4	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 48¢	$240	$262.5	+$22.5
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 49.5¢	$247.57	$237.5	-$8.1
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 48.8¢	$330.29	$342.59	+$12.31	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 48.8¢	$180.12	$193.85	+$13.73
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 48¢	$150.17	$148.75	-$1.42
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Jazzavg 49.2¢	$275.15	$273.97	-$1.17	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 49.2¢	$153.54	$148.21	-$0.39
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 49.3¢	$118.08	$125.77	-$0.78
nigiri99CTR	Jazzavg 51¢	$262.42	$248.45	-$13.97	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
LI LimousinCTR	Jazzavg 48¢	$143.76	$142.26	-$1.5	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Jazzavg 49.5¢	$43.35	$22.1	+$0.35	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
SE sentrio<$100	Timberwolvesavg 49¢	$35.8	$18.8	+$1.25	51% 27916-27361 (55277)

ferrariChampions2026

Timberwolves

Invested

$20,073.78

Value

$10.5K

PnL

+$702.6

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Jazz

Invested

$7,832.99

Value

$7.3K

PnL

-$537.56

Record

49%

507-531 (1038)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$5,226.39

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$63.71

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$2,540.9448¢+$235.43

Jazz$2,685.4550.7¢-$171.72

nehcnehcCTR

Jazz

Invested

$4,730.87

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$409.34

Record

61%

4520-2835 (7355)

hi774cCTR

Jazz

Invested

$1,377.26

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$0.94

Record

46%

5609-6517 (12126)

739633786

Timberwolves

Invested

$1,232.79

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$33.59

Record

44%

442-560 (1002)

pltrkr111CTR

Jazz

Invested

$1,000

Value

$950

PnL

-$50

Record

55%

824-676 (1500)

NM-PARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$615.84

Value

$619.34

PnL

+$3.5

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

Both legs:

Jazz$353.4350.5¢+$3.5

Timberwolves$264.1748.4¢+$0

GC-PARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$1,050

Value

$516.25

PnL

-$5.25

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

Both legs:

Jazz$353.4350.5¢-$21

Timberwolves$16848¢+$15.75

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$750

Value

$500

PnL

+$14.4

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$24048¢+$22.5

Jazz$247.5749.5¢-$8.1

38791873984189ARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$330.29

Value

$342.59

PnL

+$12.31

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$180.1248.8¢+$13.73

Jazz$150.1748¢-$1.42

SnakeBallARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$275.15

Value

$273.97

PnL

-$1.17

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

Both legs:

Jazz$153.5449.2¢-$0.39

Timberwolves$118.0849.3¢-$0.78

nigiri99CTR

Jazz

Invested

$262.42

Value

$248.45

PnL

-$13.97

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

LimousinCTR

Jazz

Invested

$143.76

Value

$142.26

PnL

-$1.5

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$43.35

Value

$22.1

PnL

+$0.35

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

sentrio<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$35.8

Value

$18.8

PnL

+$1.25

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Timberwolves 53%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJazz 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrJazz 78% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.