Penguins vs. Ducks

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Ducks (80%) · Ducks at 52¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 9

Penguins49¢Ducks51¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ducks

Consensus Traders

Ducks 80%

Total Value

$15.1K

Combined PnL

-$120.99

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 51.5¢

-1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralDucks at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ducks

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Penguins49%

Ducks52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ducks8 traders

Total Value$14.5K

Total Shares28,041

Combined PnL-$132.3

Penguins2 traders

Total Value$646.44

Total Shares1,333

Combined PnL+$11.31

Ducks — 80%Penguins — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Ducks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDucks 67% · 6

Aligned

ctrDucks 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedDucks 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Ducks 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Ducksavg 52¢	$22.4K	$11.5K	-$111.84	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
VeryLucky888	Ducksavg 51.7¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$6.31	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
DV dv-pm	Ducksavg 52¢	$750.36	$743.15	-$7.22	48% 3580-3942 (7522)
nigiri99CTR	Penguinsavg 47.6¢	$628.61	$639.72	+$11.1	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
OM omnibus-076daa	Ducksavg 52¢	$447.22	$442.91	-$4.31	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
0xheavy888	Ducksavg 51.5¢	$206	$206	+$0	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
PA Pan9X	Ducksavg 52.5¢	$200	$103	-$2	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
GH ghorrock<$100	Ducksavg 52.8¢	$45.32	$23.34	-$0.61	57% 24613-18229 (42842)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Penguinsavg 47¢	$6.51	$6.72	+$0.21	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Ducksavg 52¢	$5	$2.58	-$0.03	52% 9470-8570 (18040)

ferrariChampions2026

Ducks

Invested

$22,367.75

Value

$11.5K

PnL

-$111.84

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

VeryLucky888

Ducks

Invested

$1,416.47

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$6.31

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

dv-pm

Ducks

Invested

$750.36

Value

$743.15

PnL

-$7.22

Record

48%

3580-3942 (7522)

nigiri99CTR

Penguins

Invested

$628.61

Value

$639.72

PnL

+$11.1

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

omnibus-076daa

Ducks

Invested

$447.22

Value

$442.91

PnL

-$4.31

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

0xheavy888

Ducks

Invested

$206

Value

$206

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

Pan9X

Ducks

Invested

$200

Value

$103

PnL

-$2

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

ghorrock<$100

Ducks

Invested

$45.32

Value

$23.34

PnL

-$0.61

Record

57%

24613-18229 (42842)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Penguins

Invested

$6.51

Value

$6.72

PnL

+$0.21

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

ameisgoat11<$100

Ducks

Invested

Value

$2.58

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

9470-8570 (18040)

Research grade

NeutralDucks at 52%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Ducks

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Ducks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDucks 67% · 6

Aligned

ctrDucks 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedDucks 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Ducks 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ducks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.