Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Buccaneers, while the market favors Bears (72%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Buccaneers vs. Bears

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Buccaneers (71%) · Buccaneers at 28¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 9

Buccaneers28¢Bears72¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Buccaneers

Consensus Traders

Buccaneers 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$1.8

Smart Money Entry

28¢ → 28.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidBuccaneers at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Buccaneers

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Bears 72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Buccaneers28%

Bears72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bears2 traders

Total Value$889.68

Total Shares1,024

Combined PnL-$18.24

Buccaneers5 traders

Total Value$871.21

Total Shares3,084

Combined PnL+$16.44

Bears — 29%Buccaneers — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

93h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Buccaneers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBuccaneers 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpBuccaneers 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrBuccaneers 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedBuccaneers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Buccaneers 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Bearsavg 72¢	$850.89	$824.64	-$18.7	50% 38089-37336 (75425)
VeryLucky888CTR	Buccaneersavg 27.9¢	$735.08	$717.17	+$14.19	58% 47221-34058 (81279)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Bearsavg 69¢	$681.71	$688.08	+$19.69	51% 26669-25270 (51939)
└ Bears leg	Bearsavg 69¢	$414.68	$426.7	+$15.03
└ Buccaneers leg	Buccaneersavg 28.6¢	$267.03	$261.38	+$4.67
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Buccaneersavg 28¢	$69.51	$70.76	+$1.24	64% 10113-5660 (15773)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Bearsavg 71¢	$64.59	$65.04	+$0.45	64% 2022-1128 (3150)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Buccaneersavg 26.9¢	$48.75	$51.28	+$2.53	48% 62058-66943 (129001)
BA BayupatiCTR<$100	Buccaneersavg 30¢	$29.39	$27.43	-$1.47	49% 265-277 (542)
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100	Buccaneersavg 28.8¢	$4.71	$4.58	-$0.05	51% 3835-3755 (7590)

SnakeBall

Bears

Invested

$850.89

Value

$824.64

PnL

-$18.7

Record

50%

38089-37336 (75425)

VeryLucky888CTR

Buccaneers

Invested

$735.08

Value

$717.17

PnL

+$14.19

Record

58%

47221-34058 (81279)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Bears

Invested

$681.71

Value

$688.08

PnL

+$19.69

Record

51%

26669-25270 (51939)

Both legs:

Bears$414.6869¢+$15.03

Buccaneers$267.0328.6¢+$4.67

NM-PCTR<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$69.51

Value

$70.76

PnL

+$1.24

Record

64%

10113-5660 (15773)

darkumbreon88<$100

Bears

Invested

$64.59

Value

$65.04

PnL

+$0.45

Record

64%

2022-1128 (3150)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$48.75

Value

$51.28

PnL

+$2.53

Record

48%

62058-66943 (129001)

BayupatiCTR<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$29.39

Value

$27.43

PnL

-$1.47

Record

49%

265-277 (542)

HerdoniaCTR<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$4.71

Value

$4.58

PnL

-$0.05

Record

51%

3835-3755 (7590)

Research grade

AvoidBuccaneers at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Buccaneers

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Bears 72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

93h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Buccaneers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBuccaneers 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpBuccaneers 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrBuccaneers 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedBuccaneers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Buccaneers 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Buccaneers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.5%

28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$227.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

327.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.