Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (54%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Buccaneers vs. Bears: O/U 46.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 47¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 43%
$3.3K
$9.72
45.9¢ → 46.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Underavg 46¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$13.16 | 41% 644-941 (1585) |
38 38791873984189 | Overavg 53¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$2.32 | 48% 70290-75979 (146269) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 45.6¢ | $429.51 | $428.39 | -$1.13 | 59% 52401-37126 (89527) |
GC GC-P | Overavg 54¢ | $270 | $267.5 | -$2.5 | 57% 22242-16601 (38843) |
NM NM-P | Overavg 54¢ | $270 | $267.5 | -$2.5 | 58% 22563-16669 (39232) |
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $39.53 | $39.97 | +$0.44 | 50% 4154-4225 (8379) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Overavg 54¢ | $8.1 | $8.03 | -$0.07 | 52% 27270-24782 (52052) |
Invested
$1,210.45
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$13.16
Record
41%
644-941 (1585)
Invested
$1,021.01
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$2.32
Record
48%
70290-75979 (146269)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$429.51
Value
$428.39
PnL
-$1.13
Record
59%
52401-37126 (89527)
Invested
$270
Value
$267.5
PnL
-$2.5
Record
57%
22242-16601 (38843)
Invested
$270
Value
$267.5
PnL
-$2.5
Record
58%
22563-16669 (39232)
Invested
$39.53
Value
$39.97
PnL
+$0.44
Record
50%
4154-4225 (8379)
Invested
$8.1
Value
$8.03
PnL
-$0.07
Record
52%
27270-24782 (52052)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.