Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Heat, while the market favors Kings (52%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Heat (-10.5)
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (50%) · Heat at 49¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 9
⚠️
Avoid
Heat
8
Heat 50%
$10.5K
$54.25
48.5¢ → 48.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidHeat at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Kings 52%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FE ferrariChampions2026 | Kingsavg 51¢ | $5.2K | $5.2K | +$50.75 | 46% 33216-38836 (72052) |
 nehcnehcCTR | Heatavg 49¢ | $4.7K | $4.7K | -$48.28 | 61% 4520-2835 (7355) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Heatavg 43¢ | $614.4 | $304.13 | +$39.94 | 51% 46870-44196 (91066) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Heatavg 44.1¢ | $283.35 | $141.57 | +$15.33 | 54% 19942-16823 (36765) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Heatavg 49¢ | $121.03 | $119.8 | -$1.23 | 48% 70219-75923 (146142) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Kingsavg 58¢ | $35.35 | $35 | -$0.35 | 50% 48537-48152 (96689) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Kingsavg 57¢ | $27.51 | $15.13 | -$1.63 | 52% 27099-24604 (51703) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Kingsavg 56¢ | $5 | $2.53 | -$0.28 | 52% 9470-8570 (18040) |
Invested
$5,176.5
Value
$5.2K
PnL
+$50.75
Record
46%
33216-38836 (72052)
nehcnehcCTRInvested
$4,731.43
Value
$4.7K
PnL
-$48.28
Record
61%
4520-2835 (7355)
Invested
$614.4
Value
$304.13
PnL
+$39.94
Record
51%
46870-44196 (91066)
Invested
$283.35
Value
$141.57
PnL
+$15.33
Record
54%
19942-16823 (36765)
Invested
$121.03
Value
$119.8
PnL
-$1.23
Record
48%
70219-75923 (146142)
Invested
$35.35
Value
$35
PnL
-$0.35
Record
50%
48537-48152 (96689)
Invested
$27.51
Value
$15.13
PnL
-$1.63
Record
52%
27099-24604 (51703)
Invested
$5
Value
$2.53
PnL
-$0.28
Record
52%
9470-8570 (18040)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.