Spread: Bears (-6.5)

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Buccaneers (43%) · Buccaneers at 53¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 9

Bears48¢Buccaneers52¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Buccaneers

Consensus Traders

Buccaneers 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.1K

Combined PnL

$61.36

Smart Money Entry

52.2¢ → 52.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralBuccaneers at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Buccaneers

6 of 14 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bears48%

Buccaneers53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Buccaneers6 traders

Total Value$9.7K

Total Shares18,421

Combined PnL+$61.37

Bears8 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,711

Combined PnL-$0

Buccaneers — 43%Bears — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

117h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Buccaneers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBuccaneers 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpBuccaneers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBuccaneers 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedBuccaneers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Buccaneers 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN	Buccaneersavg 52.6¢	$7.7K	$7.7K	-$14.91	51% 1005-973 (1978)
HE Herdonia	Buccaneersavg 50.3¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$68.61	51% 3851-3766 (7617)
nigiri99CTR	Bearsavg 48¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$11.21	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
TA takeormakeCTR	Bearsavg 47¢	$836.81	$845.72	+$8.9	52% 5134-4713 (9847)
SN SnakeBall	Buccaneersavg 51¢	$261.63	$269.33	+$7.7	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Bearsavg 47.3¢	$568.15	$235.44	+$14.07	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Buccaneers leg	Buccaneersavg 50.3¢	$113.34	$118.26	+$5.11
└ Bears leg	Bearsavg 47.3¢	$116.6	$117.18	+$8.96
NM NM-PCTR	Bearsavg 47¢	$164.5	$166.25	+$1.75	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Bearsavg 47¢	$68.44	$69.16	+$0.73	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
0X 0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100	Buccaneersavg 53.7¢	$49.76	$48.61	-$0.46	46% 931-1099 (2030)
BA BayupatiCTR<$100	Bearsavg 47.7¢	$46.53	$46.29	+$0.49	49% 269-278 (547)
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	Bearsavg 48.8¢	$38.59	$37.56	-$1.03	64% 2043-1136 (3179)
PA Pan9X<$100	Buccaneersavg 50.4¢	$13.35	$13.88	+$0.53	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Bearsavg 45¢	$6.75	$7.13	+$0.38	53% 12855-11522 (24377)
MD mde4life1986<$100	Buccaneersavg 54.7¢	$3.28	$3.15	-$0.09	48% 166-182 (348)
BA Bagwell306CTR<$100	Bearsavg 47.7¢	$0.74	$0.74	-$0	57% 4284-3214 (7498)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN

Buccaneers

Invested

$7,732.95

Value

$7.7K

PnL

-$14.91

Record

51%

1005-973 (1978)

Herdonia

Buccaneers

Invested

$1,542.29

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$68.61

Record

51%

3851-3766 (7617)

nigiri99CTR

Bears

Invested

$1,076.16

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$11.21

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

takeormakeCTR

Bears

Invested

$836.81

Value

$845.72

PnL

+$8.9

Record

52%

5134-4713 (9847)

SnakeBall

Buccaneers

Invested

$261.63

Value

$269.33

PnL

+$7.7

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Bears

Invested

$568.15

Value

$235.44

PnL

+$14.07

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Buccaneers$113.3450.3¢+$5.11

Bears$116.647.3¢+$8.96

NM-PCTR

Bears

Invested

$164.5

Value

$166.25

PnL

+$1.75

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Bears

Invested

$68.44

Value

$69.16

PnL

+$0.73

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$49.76

Value

$48.61

PnL

-$0.46

Record

46%

931-1099 (2030)

BayupatiCTR<$100

Bears

Invested

$46.53

Value

$46.29

PnL

+$0.49

Record

49%

269-278 (547)

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

Bears

Invested

$38.59

Value

$37.56

PnL

-$1.03

Record

64%

2043-1136 (3179)

Pan9X<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$13.35

Value

$13.88

PnL

+$0.53

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Bears

Invested

$6.75

Value

$7.13

PnL

+$0.38

Record

53%

12855-11522 (24377)

mde4life1986<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$3.28

Value

$3.15

PnL

-$0.09

Record

48%

166-182 (348)

Bagwell306CTR<$100

Bears

Invested

$0.74

Value

$0.74

PnL

-$0

Record

57%

4284-3214 (7498)

Research grade

NeutralBuccaneers at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Buccaneers

6 of 14 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

117h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Buccaneers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBuccaneers 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpBuccaneers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBuccaneers 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedBuccaneers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Buccaneers 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Buccaneers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.