Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold T1, while the market favors Bilibili Gaming (54%). 4 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 2 Winner

4 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold T1 (21%) · T1 at 47¢ · $120K held · ends Nov 9

Bilibili Gaming54¢T146¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

T1 21%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$120.1K

Combined PnL

$581.69

Smart Money Entry

47.4¢ → 46.5¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralT1 at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 19 top traders (21%)Underdog side (market favors Bilibili Gaming 54%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bilibili Gaming54%

T147%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

T14 traders

Total Value$60.5K

Total Shares130,205

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Bilibili Gaming15 traders

Total Value$58.3K

Total Shares107,405

Combined PnL+$1.8K

T1 — 21%Bilibili Gaming — 79%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FA fantasy7788CTR	T1avg 47.6¢	$58.4K	$57.1K	$-1.4K	41% 102-144 (246)
Anjun	Bilibili Gamingavg 52.5¢	$23.3K	$24.2K	+$888.88	55% 5484-4526 (10010)
KateBollinger	Bilibili Gamingavg 53.2¢	$16.7K	$16.0K	+$85.87	68% 1883-904 (2787)
SK skadii	Bilibili Gamingavg 49.6¢	$6.9K	$7.4K	+$533.92	48% 682-733 (1415)
0X 0x7986576408b65a9805AC85553Be33Ad0B044BAa5-1781719173927CTR	T1avg 45¢	$3.3K	$3.4K	+$109.95	54% 293-246 (539)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Bilibili Gamingavg 52¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$70.45	53% 6644-5935 (12579)
BR brobrobrobrobro	Bilibili Gamingavg 53¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$21.19	62% 264-161 (425)
alpheclabs2	Bilibili Gamingavg 49¢	$1.9K	$2.1K	+$178.4	47% 1637-1844 (3481)
WH whosay	Bilibili Gamingavg 54¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$15	57% 1299-970 (2269)
CI cigarettes	Bilibili Gamingavg 51¢	$765	$802.5	+$37.5	50% 65490-65806 (131296)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Bilibili Gamingavg 51.8¢	$750.47	$763.02	+$12.55	53% 15510-13744 (29254)
└ Bilibili Gaming leg	Bilibili Gamingavg 51.8¢	$466.5	$481.5	+$15
└ T1 leg	T1avg 46.9¢	$283.97	$281.52	-$2.45
25 254321758	Bilibili Gamingavg 52¢	$385.29	$388.99	+$3.7	68% 475-220 (695)
nigiri99	Bilibili Gamingavg 54.8¢	$382.87	$376.49	-$6.38	45% 14433-17740 (32173)
BI BillBenter2026	Bilibili Gamingavg 54.4¢	$279.15	$274.46	-$4.69	57% 20231-15051 (35282)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Bilibili Gamingavg 50¢	$203	$221.27	+$18.27	46% 33409-38908 (72317)
ryou999	Bilibili Gamingavg 51¢	$204	$214	+$10	40% 21-31 (52)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Bilibili Gamingavg 53.6¢	$229.91	$202.02	-$0.9	48% 70290-75979 (146269)
└ Bilibili Gaming leg	Bilibili Gamingavg 53.6¢	$126.4	$126.26	-$0.14
└ T1 leg	T1avg 46.4¢	$75.66	$75.76	-$0.76
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Bilibili Gamingavg 50¢	$800	$200	+$0	56% 195-152 (347)
└ Bilibili Gaming leg	Bilibili Gamingavg 50¢	$100	$105	+$5
└ T1 leg	T1avg 50¢	$100	$95	-$5
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Bilibili Gamingavg 53.9¢	$82.26	$81.59	-$0.68	52% 9515-8627 (18142)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	T1avg 45.9¢	$34.36	$34.83	+$0.46	57% 24685-18276 (42961)
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR<$100	T1avg 46¢	$33.62	$34.72	+$1.1	58% 1180-871 (2051)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Bilibili Gamingavg 53¢	$11.8	$11.69	-$0.11	50% 23482-23489 (46971)

fantasy7788CTR

Invested

$58,420

Value

$57.1K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

41%

102-144 (246)

Anjun

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$23,333.1

Value

$24.2K

PnL

+$888.88

Record

55%

5484-4526 (10010)

KateBollinger

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$16,678.4

Value

$16.0K

PnL

+$85.87

Record

68%

1883-904 (2787)

skadii

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$6,865

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$533.92

Record

48%

682-733 (1415)

0x7986576408b65a9805AC85553Be33Ad0B044BAa5-1781719173927CTR

Invested

$3,298.36

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$109.95

Record

54%

293-246 (539)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$2,403.85

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$70.45

Record

53%

6644-5935 (12579)

brobrobrobrobro

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$2,146.81

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$21.19

Record

62%

264-161 (425)

alpheclabs2

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$1,942.55

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$178.4

Record

47%

1637-1844 (3481)

whosay

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$1,620

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$15

Record

57%

1299-970 (2269)

cigarettes

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$765

Value

$802.5

PnL

+$37.5

Record

50%

65490-65806 (131296)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$750.47

Value

$763.02

PnL

+$12.55

Record

53%

15510-13744 (29254)

Both legs:

Bilibili Gaming$466.551.8¢+$15

T1$283.9746.9¢-$2.45

254321758

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$385.29

Value

$388.99

PnL

+$3.7

Record

68%

475-220 (695)

nigiri99

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$382.87

Value

$376.49

PnL

-$6.38

Record

45%

14433-17740 (32173)

BillBenter2026

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$279.15

Value

$274.46

PnL

-$4.69

Record

57%

20231-15051 (35282)

ferrariChampions2026

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$203

Value

$221.27

PnL

+$18.27

Record

46%

33409-38908 (72317)

ryou999

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$204

Value

$214

PnL

+$10

Record

40%

21-31 (52)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$229.91

Value

$202.02

PnL

-$0.9

Record

48%

70290-75979 (146269)

Both legs:

Bilibili Gaming$126.453.6¢-$0.14

T1$75.6646.4¢-$0.76

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$800

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

195-152 (347)

Both legs:

Bilibili Gaming$10050¢+$5

T1$10050¢-$5

ameisgoat11<$100

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$82.26

Value

$81.59

PnL

-$0.68

Record

52%

9515-8627 (18142)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$34.36

Value

$34.83

PnL

+$0.46

Record

57%

24685-18276 (42961)

0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR<$100

Invested

$33.62

Value

$34.72

PnL

+$1.1

Record

58%

1180-871 (2051)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$11.8

Value

$11.69

PnL

-$0.11

Record

50%

23482-23489 (46971)

Research grade

NeutralT1 at 47%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 19 top traders (21%)Underdog side (market favors Bilibili Gaming 54%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that T1 wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.