Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Jessica Pegula, while the market favors Coco Gauff (52%). 18 of 23 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

WTA Finals, Group A: Coco Gauff vs Jessica Pegula

18 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Jessica Pegula (78%) · Jessica Pegula at 49¢ · $26K held · ends Nov 15

Coco Gauff52¢Jessica Pegula48¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Jessica Pegula

Consensus Traders

Jessica Pegula 78%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.6K

Combined PnL

$875.89

Smart Money Entry

44.1¢ → 48.5¢

+10% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

Research candidateJessica Pegula at 49%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jessica Pegula

18 of 23 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Coco Gauff 52%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Coco Gauff52%

Jessica Pegula49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Coco Gauff5 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares14,238

Combined PnL+$557.8

Jessica Pegula18 traders

Total Value$10.9K

Total Shares23,940

Combined PnL+$318.09

Coco Gauff — 22%Jessica Pegula — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Coco Gauffavg 56¢	$4.5K	$4.8K	+$280.92	53% 682-594 (1276)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Coco Gauffavg 53.7¢	$2.9K	$3.0K	+$102.74	51% 5683-5537 (11220)
└ Coco Gauff leg	Coco Gauffavg 53.7¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$32.74
└ Jessica Pegula leg	Jessica Pegulaavg 42¢	$840	$910	+$70
cs2.quant	Coco Gauffavg 54¢	$2.6K	$2.8K	+$216.97	57% 114-85 (199)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Jessica Pegulaavg 46¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$19.12	46% 2024-2378 (4402)
VE VenusianCTR	Jessica Pegulaavg 47¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$48.45	47% 2177-2413 (4590)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Jessica Pegulaavg 41.6¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$55.37	50% 5215-5114 (10329)
LI LimousinCTR	Jessica Pegulaavg 44.5¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$103.72	49% 2208-2325 (4533)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Jessica Pegulaavg 43.8¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$117.55	46% 33409-38908 (72317)
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Jessica Pegulaavg 42.9¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$71.22	53% 6779-5930 (12709)
└ Jessica Pegula leg	Jessica Pegulaavg 42.9¢	$686.77	$728.54	+$41.77
└ Coco Gauff leg	Coco Gauffavg 51¢	$429.16	$458.61	+$29.45
GC GC-PCTR	Jessica Pegulaavg 43¢	$801.87	$792.69	-$9.18	57% 22242-16601 (38843)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100	Coco Gauffavg 58¢	$775	$792.5	+$17.5	50% 2215-2187 (4402)
└ Coco Gauff leg	Coco Gauffavg 58¢	$580	$585	+$5
└ Jessica Pegula leg	Jessica Pegulaavg 39¢	$195	$207.5	+$12.5
AC Accomplished-Framework	Coco Gauffavg 53.1¢	$711.68	$770.74	+$59.06	46% 295-343 (638)
NM NM-PCTR	Jessica Pegulaavg 43¢	$603.88	$610.9	+$7.02	58% 22563-16669 (39232)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Jessica Pegulaavg 42.3¢	$604.75	$533.8	+$12.04	48% 70290-75979 (146269)
└ Jessica Pegula leg	Jessica Pegulaavg 42.3¢	$362.49	$363.79	+$2.56
└ Coco Gauff leg	Coco Gauffavg 54.3¢	$160.53	$170.01	+$9.48
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Jessica Pegulaavg 44¢	$518.97	$531.98	+$13.01	51% 47280-44570 (91850)
└ Jessica Pegula leg	Jessica Pegulaavg 44¢	$357.84	$370.19	+$12.35
└ Coco Gauff leg	Coco Gauffavg 54.3¢	$161.13	$161.79	+$0.66
RN1CTR	Jessica Pegulaavg 43¢	$497.72	$526.65	+$28.94	53% 70213-61793 (132006)
SC SchruteBucksCTR	Jessica Pegulaavg 38.1¢	$331.65	$395.73	+$64.08	56% 1972-1532 (3504)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Jessica Pegulaavg 45.9¢	$379.02	$371.05	-$3.77	60% 4596-3103 (7699)
1L 1lovejumpCTR	Jessica Pegulaavg 44.8¢	$674.41	$351.84	+$24.65	53% 851-751 (1602)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Jessica Pegulaavg 44¢	$272.59	$281.99	+$9.4	47% 2124-2359 (4483)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Coco Gauffavg 53.1¢	$213.37	$218.94	+$5.56	53% 15510-13744 (29254)
└ Coco Gauff leg	Coco Gauffavg 53.1¢	$119.37	$115.7	-$3.67
└ Jessica Pegula leg	Jessica Pegulaavg 44.2¢	$94	$103.24	+$9.23
VeryLucky888CTR	Jessica Pegulaavg 43¢	$558.38	$217.5	-$1.4	59% 52401-37126 (89527)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Jessica Pegulaavg 43¢	$216.01	$203.45	-$12.56	50% 23482-23489 (46971)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Jessica Pegulaavg 42.3¢	$76.2	$76.5	+$0.3	49% 3723-3946 (7669)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Jessica Pegulaavg 44¢	$55	$56.4	+$1.4	54% 10223-8703 (18926)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Coco Gauff

Invested

$4,494.65

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$280.92

Record

53%

682-594 (1276)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Coco Gauff

Invested

$2,918.59

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$102.74

Record

51%

5683-5537 (11220)

Both legs:

Coco Gauff$2,078.653.7¢+$32.74

Jessica Pegula$84042¢+$70

cs2.quant

Coco Gauff

Invested

$2,603.57

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$216.97

Record

57%

114-85 (199)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$1,759.42

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$19.12

Record

46%

2024-2378 (4402)

VenusianCTR

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$1,530.53

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$48.45

Record

47%

2177-2413 (4590)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$1,245.66

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$55.37

Record

50%

5215-5114 (10329)

LimousinCTR

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$1,153.22

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$103.72

Record

49%

2208-2325 (4533)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$1,092.09

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$117.55

Record

46%

33409-38908 (72317)

EulhunterARB<$100

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$1,115.93

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$71.22

Record

53%

6779-5930 (12709)

Both legs:

Jessica Pegula$686.7742.9¢+$41.77

Coco Gauff$429.1651¢+$29.45

GC-PCTR

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$801.87

Value

$792.69

PnL

-$9.18

Record

57%

22242-16601 (38843)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100

Coco Gauff

Invested

$775

Value

$792.5

PnL

+$17.5

Record

50%

2215-2187 (4402)

Both legs:

Coco Gauff$58058¢+$5

Jessica Pegula$19539¢+$12.5

Accomplished-Framework

Coco Gauff

Invested

$711.68

Value

$770.74

PnL

+$59.06

Record

46%

295-343 (638)

NM-PCTR

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$603.88

Value

$610.9

PnL

+$7.02

Record

58%

22563-16669 (39232)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$604.75

Value

$533.8

PnL

+$12.04

Record

48%

70290-75979 (146269)

Both legs:

Jessica Pegula$362.4942.3¢+$2.56

Coco Gauff$160.5354.3¢+$9.48

FlaznorpARB<$100

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$518.97

Value

$531.98

PnL

+$13.01

Record

51%

47280-44570 (91850)

Both legs:

Jessica Pegula$357.8444¢+$12.35

Coco Gauff$161.1354.3¢+$0.66

RN1CTR

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$497.72

Value

$526.65

PnL

+$28.94

Record

53%

70213-61793 (132006)

SchruteBucksCTR

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$331.65

Value

$395.73

PnL

+$64.08

Record

56%

1972-1532 (3504)

thestingsnakeCTR

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$379.02

Value

$371.05

PnL

-$3.77

Record

60%

4596-3103 (7699)

1lovejumpCTR

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$674.41

Value

$351.84

PnL

+$24.65

Record

53%

851-751 (1602)

LightParadoxCTR

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$272.59

Value

$281.99

PnL

+$9.4

Record

47%

2124-2359 (4483)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Coco Gauff

Invested

$213.37

Value

$218.94

PnL

+$5.56

Record

53%

15510-13744 (29254)

Both legs:

Coco Gauff$119.3753.1¢-$3.67

Jessica Pegula$9444.2¢+$9.23

VeryLucky888CTR

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$558.38

Value

$217.5

PnL

-$1.4

Record

59%

52401-37126 (89527)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$216.01

Value

$203.45

PnL

-$12.56

Record

50%

23482-23489 (46971)

efntrickCTR<$100

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$76.2

Value

$76.5

PnL

+$0.3

Record

49%

3723-3946 (7669)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$55

Value

$56.4

PnL

+$1.4

Record

54%

10223-8703 (18926)

Research grade

Research candidateJessica Pegula at 49%

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Jessica Pegula

18 of 23 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Coco Gauff 52%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jessica Pegula wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.