Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Nets, while the market favors Mavericks (51%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Mavericks (-7.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Nets (60%) · Nets at 50¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 9

Mavericks51¢Nets49¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nets

Consensus Traders

Nets 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$40.32

Smart Money Entry

46.6¢ → 49.5¢

+6% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNets at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nets

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Mavericks 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Mavericks51%

Nets50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nets6 traders

Total Value$631.48

Total Shares1,276

Combined PnL+$36.57

Mavericks4 traders

Total Value$384.28

Total Shares761

Combined PnL+$3.75

Nets — 60%Mavericks — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on Nets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMavericks 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNets 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Nets 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Mavericksavg 50¢	$429.14	$436.66	+$7.52	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 50¢	$273.32	$276.05	+$2.73
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 48¢	$155.82	$160.61	+$4.79
nigiri99CTR	Netsavg 46¢	$236.41	$254.43	+$18.02	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
NM NM-P	Mavericksavg 50¢	$350	$176.75	+$1.75	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
GC GC-P	Mavericksavg 50¢	$350	$176.75	+$1.75	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
38 38791873984189CTR	Netsavg 48.7¢	$317.72	$157.27	+$2.65	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
LI LimousinCTR	Netsavg 46¢	$256	$126.72	+$8.96	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Netsavg 43¢	$43	$49.5	+$6.5	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Mavericksavg 50¢	$55.96	$28.26	+$0.28	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Netsavg 49¢	$51	$25.24	+$0.25	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Netsavg 49¢	$37	$18.32	+$0.19	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Mavericksavg 51¢	$5	$2.53	-$0.03	52% 9470-8570 (18040)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$429.14

Value

$436.66

PnL

+$7.52

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

Both legs:

Mavericks$273.3250¢+$2.73

Nets$155.8248¢+$4.79

nigiri99CTR

Nets

Invested

$236.41

Value

$254.43

PnL

+$18.02

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

NM-P

Mavericks

Invested

$350

Value

$176.75

PnL

+$1.75

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

GC-P

Mavericks

Invested

$350

Value

$176.75

PnL

+$1.75

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

38791873984189CTR

Nets

Invested

$317.72

Value

$157.27

PnL

+$2.65

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

LimousinCTR

Nets

Invested

$256

Value

$126.72

PnL

+$8.96

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$43

Value

$49.5

PnL

+$6.5

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

SnakeBall<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$55.96

Value

$28.26

PnL

+$0.28

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

VenusianCTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$51

Value

$25.24

PnL

+$0.25

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$37

Value

$18.32

PnL

+$0.19

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

ameisgoat11<$100

Mavericks

Invested

Value

$2.53

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

9470-8570 (18040)

Research grade

AvoidNets at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Nets

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Mavericks 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on Nets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMavericks 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNets 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Nets 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.