Jazz vs. Timberwolves: O/U 222.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 52¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 9

Over49¢Under51¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

-$2.4

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 51.5¢

+3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$749.53

Total Shares1,463

Combined PnL+$8.51

Over4 traders

Total Value$509.14

Total Shares961

Combined PnL-$10.91

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 52¢	$2.3K	$1.6K	+$111.9	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
└ Under leg	Underavg 45¢	$723.83	$812.29	+$88.47
└ Over leg	Overavg 52¢	$793.05	$755.5	+$23.44
nehcnehc	Underavg 51¢	$544.96	$550.3	+$5.34	61% 4520-2835 (7355)
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 49¢	$207.88	$207.22	-$0.66	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 49¢	$171.5	$169.75	-$1.75	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 48¢	$128.52	$124.82	-$3.71	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 52.8¢	$131.5	$123.23	-$8.27	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
BI biying99999<$100	Underavg 46¢	$49.68	$54.54	+$4.86	48% 150-163 (313)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 45¢	$24.37	$12.31	+$1.34	57% 24613-18229 (42842)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 53¢	$49.96	$8.95	-$0.23	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 46¢	$4.6	$5.05	+$0.45	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 46¢	$5	$2.53	+$0.23	52% 9470-8570 (18040)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,340.57

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$111.9

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

Both legs:

Under$723.8345¢+$88.47

Over$793.0552¢+$23.44

nehcnehc

Under

Invested

$544.96

Value

$550.3

PnL

+$5.34

Record

61%

4520-2835 (7355)

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$207.88

Value

$207.22

PnL

-$0.66

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$171.5

Value

$169.75

PnL

-$1.75

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$128.52

Value

$124.82

PnL

-$3.71

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$131.5

Value

$123.23

PnL

-$8.27

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

biying99999<$100

Under

Invested

$49.68

Value

$54.54

PnL

+$4.86

Record

48%

150-163 (313)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$24.37

Value

$12.31

PnL

+$1.34

Record

57%

24613-18229 (42842)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$49.96

Value

$8.95

PnL

-$0.23

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$4.6

Value

$5.05

PnL

+$0.45

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$2.53

PnL

+$0.23

Record

52%

9470-8570 (18040)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.