Spread: Mavericks (-9.5)

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Nets (33%) · Nets at 57¢ · $43K held · ends Nov 9

Mavericks43¢Nets57¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nets

Consensus Traders

Nets 33%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$42.6K

Combined PnL

$682.78

Smart Money Entry

51.6¢ → 57.5¢

+11% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNets at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nets

4 of 12 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Mavericks43%

Nets57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nets4 traders

Total Value$24.5K

Total Shares42,566

Combined PnL+$2.5K

Mavericks8 traders

Total Value$12.8K

Total Shares30,118

Combined PnL$-1.8K

Nets — 33%Mavericks — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Nets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Nets) and the top 1000 (11 on Mavericks) disagree here.

whaleNets 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrMavericks 70% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedNets 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Mavericks 73% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Netsavg 51.5¢	$20.4K	$22.8K	+$2.4K	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Mavericksavg 49¢	$9.8K	$8.5K	$-1.3K	53% 679-594 (1273)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Mavericksavg 48.1¢	$9.5K	$5.1K	-$433.3	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 48.1¢	$3.7K	$3.3K	-$432.81
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 53.9¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	-$0.49
HG hgawxCTR	Mavericksavg 48¢	$3.3K	$3.0K	-$382.4	42% 56-78 (134)
HI hi774cCTR	Mavericksavg 48¢	$1.1K	$994.28	-$128.67	46% 5609-6517 (12126)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Netsavg 54.8¢	$1.6K	$926.59	+$43	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
SU SunlineTicker	Netsavg 50.9¢	$571.28	$645.15	+$73.87	54% 5358-4572 (9930)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Mavericksavg 48¢	$531.6	$242.38	-$22.66	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 48¢	$202.52	$179.32	-$23.21
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 57¢	$62.52	$63.07	+$0.55
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Mavericksavg 43¢	$206.41	$204.01	-$2.4	49% 507-531 (1038)
38 38791873984189CTR	Mavericksavg 49¢	$200	$81.18	-$12.42	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
VeryLucky888	Netsavg 56¢	$637.29	$78.94	+$2.06	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 43.6¢	$63.91	$64.03	+$0.12	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 48¢	$86.99	$16.52	-$0.42	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Mavericksavg 44¢	$8.8	$8.5	-$0.3	56% 8592-6809 (15401)

nigiri99

Nets

Invested

$20,434.28

Value

$22.8K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$9,800

Value

$8.5K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

53%

679-594 (1273)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$9,537.62

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$433.3

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

Both legs:

Mavericks$3,727.5848.1¢-$432.81

Nets$1,673.4953.9¢-$0.49

hgawxCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$3,339.68

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$382.4

Record

42%

56-78 (134)

hi774cCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$1,122.95

Value

$994.28

PnL

-$128.67

Record

46%

5609-6517 (12126)

ferrariChampions2026

Nets

Invested

$1,611.47

Value

$926.59

PnL

+$43

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

SunlineTicker

Nets

Invested

$571.28

Value

$645.15

PnL

+$73.87

Record

54%

5358-4572 (9930)

sentrioARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$531.6

Value

$242.38

PnL

-$22.66

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

Both legs:

Mavericks$202.5248¢-$23.21

Nets$62.5257¢+$0.55

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$206.41

Value

$204.01

PnL

-$2.4

Record

49%

507-531 (1038)

38791873984189CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$200

Value

$81.18

PnL

-$12.42

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

VeryLucky888

Nets

Invested

$637.29

Value

$78.94

PnL

+$2.06

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$63.91

Value

$64.03

PnL

+$0.12

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$86.99

Value

$16.52

PnL

-$0.42

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$8.8

Value

$8.5

PnL

-$0.3

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

Research grade

AvoidNets at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Nets

4 of 12 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Nets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Nets) and the top 1000 (11 on Mavericks) disagree here.

whaleNets 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrMavericks 70% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedNets 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Mavericks 73% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.