Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Bucks, while the market favors Celtics (54%). 10 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Celtics (-12.5)

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Bucks (71%) · Bucks at 47¢ · $63K held · ends Nov 9

Celtics54¢Bucks46¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bucks

Consensus Traders

Bucks 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$63.1K

Combined PnL

$316.3

Smart Money Entry

47.3¢ → 46.5¢

-2% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidBucks at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bucks

10 of 14 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Celtics 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Celtics54%

Bucks47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics4 traders

Total Value$30.8K

Total Shares57,762

Combined PnL+$387.33

Bucks10 traders

Total Value$31.0K

Total Shares65,691

Combined PnL-$71.03

Celtics — 29%Bucks — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Celticsavg 52.8¢	$27.7K	$28.1K	+$355.73	46% 33417-38911 (72328)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Bucksavg 47¢	$16.1K	$16.0K	-$171.77	48% 521-567 (1088)
QU QuentinChenCTR	Bucksavg 47¢	$5.6K	$5.8K	+$180	46% 353-408 (761)
nehcnehcCTR	Bucksavg 49¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	-$48.19	61% 4522-2835 (7357)
IA ianf2026CTR	Bucksavg 46.6¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	-$8.1	50% 126-128 (254)
HO HomeRunHazard	Celticsavg 51¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$25.2	54% 19992-16872 (36864)
VeryLucky888CTR	Bucksavg 47.4¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$21.22	59% 52427-37141 (89568)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Celticsavg 52¢	$625	$633.75	+$8.75	57% 22246-16603 (38849)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 52¢	$390	$401.25	+$11.25
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 47¢	$235	$232.5	-$2.5
NM NM-PARB<$100	Celticsavg 52¢	$625	$633.75	+$8.75	58% 22573-16672 (39245)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 52¢	$390	$401.25	+$11.25
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 47¢	$235	$232.5	-$2.5
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Celticsavg 52¢	$208	$214	+$6	50% 2217-2191 (4408)
RN1CTR	Bucksavg 47¢	$117.5	$116.25	-$1.25	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Bucksavg 47¢	$56.87	$56.27	-$0.61	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Celticsavg 51¢	$40.25	$40.64	+$0.39	50% 48622-48197 (96819)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Bucksavg 48¢	$25	$12.13	+$0.13	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Bucksavg 47¢	$4.7	$4.65	-$0.05	50% 8560-8732 (17292)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Bucksavg 48¢	$5	$2.43	+$0.03	52% 9525-8636 (18161)

ferrariChampions2026

Celtics

Invested

$27,703.89

Value

$28.1K

PnL

+$355.73

Record

46%

33417-38911 (72328)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Bucks

Invested

$16,145.95

Value

$16.0K

PnL

-$171.77

Record

48%

521-567 (1088)

QuentinChenCTR

Bucks

Invested

$5,640

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$180

Record

46%

353-408 (761)

nehcnehcCTR

Bucks

Invested

$4,726.96

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$48.19

Record

61%

4522-2835 (7357)

ianf2026CTR

Bucks

Invested

$3,160.63

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$8.1

Record

50%

126-128 (254)

HomeRunHazard

Celtics

Invested

$2,464.9

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$25.2

Record

54%

19992-16872 (36864)

VeryLucky888CTR

Bucks

Invested

$1,245.36

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$21.22

Record

59%

52427-37141 (89568)

GC-PARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$625

Value

$633.75

PnL

+$8.75

Record

57%

22246-16603 (38849)

Both legs:

Celtics$39052¢+$11.25

Bucks$23547¢-$2.5

NM-PARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$625

Value

$633.75

PnL

+$8.75

Record

58%

22573-16672 (39245)

Both legs:

Celtics$39052¢+$11.25

Bucks$23547¢-$2.5

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Celtics

Invested

$208

Value

$214

PnL

+$6

Record

50%

2217-2191 (4408)

RN1CTR

Bucks

Invested

$117.5

Value

$116.25

PnL

-$1.25

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$56.87

Value

$56.27

PnL

-$0.61

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

SnakeBall<$100

Celtics

Invested

$40.25

Value

$40.64

PnL

+$0.39

Record

50%

48622-48197 (96819)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$25

Value

$12.13

PnL

+$0.13

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

RLWGCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.65

PnL

-$0.05

Record

50%

8560-8732 (17292)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

Value

$2.43

PnL

+$0.03

Record

52%

9525-8636 (18161)

Research grade

AvoidBucks at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Bucks

10 of 14 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Celtics 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bucks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.