Spread: Bears (-5.5)

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Bears (75%) · Bears at 53¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 9

Bears53¢Buccaneers47¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bears

Consensus Traders

Bears 75%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.0K

Combined PnL

$9.35

Smart Money Entry

52.6¢ → 52.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralBears at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bears

6 of 8 top traders (75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bears53%

Buccaneers48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bears6 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares8,962

Combined PnL-$22.37

Buccaneers2 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares5,883

Combined PnL+$31.72

Bears — 75%Buccaneers — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+25 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

93h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Bears. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBears 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrBears 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Bears 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Bearsavg 53¢	$5.6K	$2.9K	-$27.77	55% 3819-3101 (6920)
PL pleasent242CTR	Buccaneersavg 47¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$27.11	52% 716-665 (1381)
38 38791873984189	Bearsavg 52¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$1.97	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Bearsavg 52¢	$999.99	$500	+$5	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
└ Bears leg	Bearsavg 52¢	$260	$262.5	+$2.5
└ Buccaneers leg	Buccaneersavg 47¢	$235	$237.5	+$2.5
NM NM-PARB<$100	Bearsavg 52¢	$490.52	$496.92	+$6.4	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
└ Bears leg	Bearsavg 52¢	$260	$262.5	+$2.5
└ Buccaneers leg	Buccaneersavg 46.7¢	$230.47	$234.42	+$3.9
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Bearsavg 53¢	$469.93	$456.25	-$13.68	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
└ Bears leg	Bearsavg 53¢	$244.33	$242.03	-$6.92
└ Buccaneers leg	Buccaneersavg 50¢	$225.5	$214.23	-$6.77
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Buccaneersavg 47¢	$214.51	$219.13	+$4.61	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
BA Bayupati	Bearsavg 51¢	$102.93	$105.96	+$3.03	49% 280-287 (567)
nigiri99<$100	Bearsavg 52.9¢	$43.88	$43.58	-$0.31	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
HE Herdonia<$100	Bearsavg 51¢	$32.9	$33.54	+$0.64	50% 4153-4222 (8375)
PA Pan9X<$100	Bearsavg 52¢	$15	$7.88	+$0.08	52% 27099-24604 (51703)

JAMJAMJAM4

Bears

Invested

$5,555

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$27.77

Record

55%

3819-3101 (6920)

pleasent242CTR

Buccaneers

Invested

$2,548.07

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$27.11

Record

52%

716-665 (1381)

38791873984189

Bears

Invested

$1,648.59

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$1.97

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

GC-PARB<$100

Bears

Invested

$999.99

Value

$500

PnL

+$5

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

Both legs:

Bears$26052¢+$2.5

Buccaneers$23547¢+$2.5

NM-PARB<$100

Bears

Invested

$490.52

Value

$496.92

PnL

+$6.4

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

Both legs:

Bears$26052¢+$2.5

Buccaneers$230.4746.7¢+$3.9

SnakeBallARB<$100

Bears

Invested

$469.93

Value

$456.25

PnL

-$13.68

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

Both legs:

Bears$244.3353¢-$6.92

Buccaneers$225.550¢-$6.77

HomeRunHazardCTR

Buccaneers

Invested

$214.51

Value

$219.13

PnL

+$4.61

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

Bayupati

Bears

Invested

$102.93

Value

$105.96

PnL

+$3.03

Record

49%

280-287 (567)

nigiri99<$100

Bears

Invested

$43.88

Value

$43.58

PnL

-$0.31

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

Herdonia<$100

Bears

Invested

$32.9

Value

$33.54

PnL

+$0.64

Record

50%

4153-4222 (8375)

Pan9X<$100

Bears

Invested

$15

Value

$7.88

PnL

+$0.08

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

Research grade

NeutralBears at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Bears

6 of 8 top traders (75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+25 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

93h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Bears. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBears 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrBears 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Bears 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bears wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.