Spread: Bears (-14.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Buccaneers (70%) · Buccaneers at 78¢ · $57K held · ends Nov 9

Bears23¢Buccaneers77¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Buccaneers

Consensus Traders

Buccaneers 70%

Total Value

$56.7K

Combined PnL

$20.94

Smart Money Entry

78¢ → 77.5¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralBuccaneers at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Buccaneers

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bears23%

Buccaneers78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Buccaneers7 traders

Total Value$43.4K

Total Shares55,961

Combined PnL-$277.16

Bears3 traders

Total Value$13.4K

Total Shares59,391

Combined PnL+$298.1

Buccaneers — 70%Bears — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on Buccaneers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBuccaneers 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrBuccaneers 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedBuccaneers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Buccaneers 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Buccaneersavg 78¢	$20.2K	$20.0K	-$129.19	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Bearsavg 22¢	$55.6K	$12.5K	+$279.09	50% 583-574 (1157)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Buccaneersavg 78¢	$8.8K	$8.7K	-$56.13	50% 3026-2973 (5999)
VeryLucky888	Buccaneersavg 78¢	$10.0K	$7.8K	-$49.91	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
HI hi774c	Buccaneersavg 78¢	$5.4K	$5.3K	-$34.49	46% 5609-6517 (12126)
PL pltrkr111	Buccaneersavg 78¢	$1,000	$993.59	-$6.41	55% 824-676 (1500)
TA takeormakeCTR	Bearsavg 22¢	$3.8K	$852.3	+$18.94	52% 5499-5133 (10632)
38 38791873984189	Buccaneersavg 77¢	$362.87	$362.97	+$0.1	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
nigiri99	Buccaneersavg 78¢	$175.5	$174.38	-$1.13	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Bearsavg 22¢	$15	$3.38	+$0.08	52% 27099-24604 (51703)

HomeRunHazard

Buccaneers

Invested

$20,159.42

Value

$20.0K

PnL

-$129.19

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Bears

Invested

$55,587.5

Value

$12.5K

PnL

+$279.09

Record

50%

583-574 (1157)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Buccaneers

Invested

$8,756.82

Value

$8.7K

PnL

-$56.13

Record

50%

3026-2973 (5999)

VeryLucky888

Buccaneers

Invested

$10,020

Value

$7.8K

PnL

-$49.91

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

hi774c

Buccaneers

Invested

$5,380

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$34.49

Record

46%

5609-6517 (12126)

pltrkr111

Buccaneers

Invested

$1,000

Value

$993.59

PnL

-$6.41

Record

55%

824-676 (1500)

takeormakeCTR

Bears

Invested

$3,788

Value

$852.3

PnL

+$18.94

Record

52%

5499-5133 (10632)

38791873984189

Buccaneers

Invested

$362.87

Value

$362.97

PnL

+$0.1

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

nigiri99

Buccaneers

Invested

$175.5

Value

$174.38

PnL

-$1.13

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Bears

Invested

$15

Value

$3.38

PnL

+$0.08

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

Research grade

NeutralBuccaneers at 78%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Buccaneers

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on Buccaneers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBuccaneers 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrBuccaneers 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedBuccaneers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Buccaneers 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Buccaneers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.