Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Buccaneers, while the market favors Bears (64%). 16 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Bears (-13.5)

16 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Buccaneers (84%) · Buccaneers at 37¢ · $52K held · ended Nov 9

Bears64¢Buccaneers36¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Buccaneers

Consensus Traders

Buccaneers 84%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$52.2K

Combined PnL

$-6.2K

Smart Money Entry

52.8¢ → 36.5¢

-31% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralBuccaneers at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Buccaneers

16 of 19 top traders (84%)Underdog side (market favors Bears 64%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bears64%

Buccaneers37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Buccaneers16 traders

Total Value$27.7K

Total Shares68,090

Combined PnL$-8.3K

Bears3 traders

Total Value$9.7K

Total Shares15,121

Combined PnL+$2.1K

Buccaneers — 84%Bears — 16%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Buccaneers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBuccaneers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBuccaneers 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Buccaneers 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Buccaneersavg 49¢	$16.1K	$11.8K	$-4.3K	46% 33417-38911 (72328)
RN1ARB<$100	Buccaneersavg 49.3¢	$9.9K	$8.6K	$-1.3K	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
└ Buccaneers leg	Buccaneersavg 49.3¢	$7.4K	$5.4K	$-2.0K
└ Bears leg	Bearsavg 50.2¢	$2.5K	$3.2K	+$696.36
TA takeormake	Bearsavg 49.2¢	$6.2K	$8.1K	+$1.9K	52% 5562-5184 (10746)
nigiri99CTR	Buccaneersavg 71¢	$6.5K	$6.5K	-$46.05	45% 14434-17741 (32175)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Buccaneersavg 62.7¢	$4.4K	$4.0K	-$374.23	54% 4009-3371 (7380)
└ Bears leg	Bearsavg 47.6¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$79.94
└ Buccaneers leg	Buccaneersavg 62.7¢	$2.3K	$1.9K	-$454.16
PR primmCTR	Buccaneersavg 51¢	$5.2K	$3.5K	$-1.7K	46% 1434-1658 (3092)
betdgeCTR	Buccaneersavg 50.1¢	$4.1K	$2.9K	$-1.2K	49% 1425-1476 (2901)
BI biying88888	Bearsavg 58.3¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$115.8	47% 242-270 (512)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Buccaneersavg 49.8¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$58.07	51% 5685-5538 (11223)
└ Bears leg	Bearsavg 49.8¢	$498	$655	+$157
└ Buccaneers leg	Buccaneersavg 49.8¢	$698.64	$483.57	-$215.07
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Buccaneersavg 50.1¢	$1.4K	$1.0K	-$399.46	50% 5216-5115 (10331)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Buccaneersavg 50¢	$1.3K	$955.08	-$371.42	51% 6917-6562 (13479)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Bearsavg 59.4¢	$713.59	$662.52	-$51.06	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
└ Bears leg	Bearsavg 59.4¢	$378.59	$404.51	+$25.93
└ Buccaneers leg	Buccaneersavg 47.4¢	$335	$258.01	-$76.99
38 38791873984189CTR	Buccaneersavg 64.9¢	$825.56	$434.67	-$385.05	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
CM cm2897ARB<$100	Buccaneersavg 41¢	$283.5	$280.48	-$3.02	50% 2578-2627 (5205)
└ Buccaneers leg	Buccaneersavg 41¢	$205	$180	-$25
└ Bears leg	Bearsavg 50¢	$78.5	$100.48	+$21.98
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Bearsavg 29.1¢	$116.26	$245.75	+$129.49	50% 2217-2191 (4408)
OD OddstormCTR	Buccaneersavg 71¢	$162.58	$161.44	-$1.14	48% 8328-8887 (17215)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Buccaneersavg 50¢	$100	$141	+$41	56% 195-152 (347)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Buccaneersavg 51.3¢	$114.88	$71.28	-$5.9	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
└ Buccaneers leg	Buccaneersavg 51.3¢	$60.54	$42.48	-$20.57
└ Bears leg	Bearsavg 41.3¢	$18.58	$28.8	+$14.67
0X 0x8f121cc492d8fef3e6ba3a51e33d6c4b5afaeeb9CTR<$100	Buccaneersavg 39.7¢	$50.63	$49.09	-$1.55	48% 598-655 (1253)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Buccaneersavg 43.4¢	$53.44	$44.3	-$9.14	47% 2189-2445 (4634)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Buccaneersavg 46¢	$48.3	$37.8	-$10.5	53% 13686-12064 (25750)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Buccaneersavg 39¢	$26.72	$24.66	-$2.06	47% 2157-2403 (4560)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Buccaneersavg 49.1¢	$29.22	$22.07	-$7.15	47% 2148-2414 (4562)
QI qidao001CTR<$100	Buccaneersavg 52¢	$10.45	$10.15	-$0.3	84% 1390-257 (1647)
0X 0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283CTR<$100	Buccaneersavg 45¢	$1.62	$1.82	+$0.2	51% 413-391 (804)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Buccaneers

Invested

$16,080.27

Value

$11.8K

PnL

$-4.3K

Record

46%

33417-38911 (72328)

RN1ARB<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$9,943.6

Value

$8.6K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

Both legs:

Buccaneers$7,405.0149.3¢$-2.0K

Bears$2,538.5850.2¢+$696.36

takeormake

Bears

Invested

$6,243.4

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

52%

5562-5184 (10746)

nigiri99CTR

Buccaneers

Invested

$6,540.51

Value

$6.5K

PnL

-$46.05

Record

45%

14434-17741 (32175)

Anon455ARB<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$4,392.31

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$374.23

Record

54%

4009-3371 (7380)

Both legs:

Bears$2,058.0747.6¢+$79.94

Buccaneers$2,334.2562.7¢-$454.16

primmCTR

Buccaneers

Invested

$5,206.03

Value

$3.5K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

46%

1434-1658 (3092)

betdgeCTR

Buccaneers

Invested

$4,107.94

Value

$2.9K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

49%

1425-1476 (2901)

biying88888

Bears

Invested

$1,178.28

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$115.8

Record

47%

242-270 (512)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$1,196.64

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$58.07

Record

51%

5685-5538 (11223)

Both legs:

Bears$49849.8¢+$157

Buccaneers$698.6449.8¢-$215.07

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Buccaneers

Invested

$1,431.04

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$399.46

Record

50%

5216-5115 (10331)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Buccaneers

Invested

$1,326.5

Value

$955.08

PnL

-$371.42

Record

51%

6917-6562 (13479)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Bears

Invested

$713.59

Value

$662.52

PnL

-$51.06

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

Both legs:

Bears$378.5959.4¢+$25.93

Buccaneers$33547.4¢-$76.99

38791873984189CTR

Buccaneers

Invested

$825.56

Value

$434.67

PnL

-$385.05

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

cm2897ARB<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$283.5

Value

$280.48

PnL

-$3.02

Record

50%

2578-2627 (5205)

Both legs:

Buccaneers$20541¢-$25

Bears$78.550¢+$21.98

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Bears

Invested

$116.26

Value

$245.75

PnL

+$129.49

Record

50%

2217-2191 (4408)

OddstormCTR

Buccaneers

Invested

$162.58

Value

$161.44

PnL

-$1.14

Record

48%

8328-8887 (17215)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Buccaneers

Invested

$100

Value

$141

PnL

+$41

Record

56%

195-152 (347)

Pan9XARB<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$114.88

Value

$71.28

PnL

-$5.9

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

Both legs:

Buccaneers$60.5451.3¢-$20.57

Bears$18.5841.3¢+$14.67

0x8f121cc492d8fef3e6ba3a51e33d6c4b5afaeeb9CTR<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$50.63

Value

$49.09

PnL

-$1.55

Record

48%

598-655 (1253)

VenusianCTR<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$53.44

Value

$44.3

PnL

-$9.14

Record

47%

2189-2445 (4634)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$48.3

Value

$37.8

PnL

-$10.5

Record

53%

13686-12064 (25750)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$26.72

Value

$24.66

PnL

-$2.06

Record

47%

2157-2403 (4560)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$29.22

Value

$22.07

PnL

-$7.15

Record

47%

2148-2414 (4562)

qidao001CTR<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$10.45

Value

$10.15

PnL

-$0.3

Record

84%

1390-257 (1647)

0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283CTR<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$1.62

Value

$1.82

PnL

+$0.2

Record

51%

413-391 (804)

Research grade

NeutralBuccaneers at 37%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Buccaneers

16 of 19 top traders (84%)Underdog side (market favors Bears 64%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Buccaneers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBuccaneers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBuccaneers 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Buccaneers 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Buccaneers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.7%

36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$158.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

258.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.