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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBanklittle-jerkprimmRN1
Record (consensus markets)41% (589–853, n=1442)no settled market50% (1244–1255, n=2499)48% (17933–19364, n=37297)
Consensus PnL$7.7M—$3.6M$14.8M
Tracked asPM monthly #2PM monthly #715PM monthly #56PM monthly #34 + pinned
Sides with the consensus80% (39 of 49 open)no open consensus position70% (14 of 20 open)57% (52 of 92 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=142, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=107, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=282, ROI +37%
not computed yet
Weakest topic————
Settled positions, side won97% of 593 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%—99% of 1027 at avg 50¢, ROI +51%94% of 26124 at avg 59¢, ROI +35%
Entries under 30¢10% (won 82% of 60)—5% (won 94% of 51)10% (won 57% of 2594)
Entries 30–50¢36% (won 98% of 212)—41% (won 99% of 421)22% (won 94% of 5704)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 100% of 205)—49% (won 99% of 508)35% (won 99% of 9204)
Entries 70¢ and up20% (won 100% of 116)—5% (won 100% of 47)33% (won 100% of 8622)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

7 on the same side, 12 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBanklittle-jerkprimmRN1
Giants vs. Eagles
opposite sides · consensus Giants
Giants $179K—Eagles $747Eagles $1.0K
Cowboys vs. Colts
opposite sides · consensus Cowboys
Colts $114K—Colts $5.1KCowboys $1.4K
Spread: Giants (-2.5)
opposite sides · consensus Eagles
Giants $107K—Eagles $95Giants $3.9K
Giants vs. Eagles: O/U 38.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
Under $219K—Over $18K—
Spread: Cowboys (-4.5)
opposite sides · consensus Colts
Colts $166K——Cowboys $1.0K
Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)
opposite sides · consensus Colts
Colts $93K——Cowboys $1.1K
Spread: Cowboys (-5.5)
opposite sides · consensus Colts
Colts $22K——Cowboys $122
Giants vs. Eagles: O/U 40.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
——Over $3.6KUnder $1.1K
Lions vs. Dolphins: O/U 48.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
——Under $3.2KOver $967
Browns vs. Saints: O/U 42.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
——Under $3.2KOver $319
Spread: Rams (-3.5)
opposite sides · consensus Commanders
——Commanders $11Rams $1.3K
Rams vs. Commanders
opposite sides · consensus Rams
——Commanders $247Rams $62
Lions vs. Dolphins
same side · consensus Lions
——Lions $47KLions $2.0K
Spread: Chiefs (-9.5)
same side · consensus Chiefs
Chiefs $21K——Chiefs $904
Spread: Rams (-4.5)
same side · consensus Commanders
Rams $19K——Rams $1.6K
Rams vs. Commanders: O/U 46.5
same side · consensus Under
——Under $948Under $4.2K
Spread: Giants (-5.5)
same side · consensus Eagles
——Eagles $157Eagles $2.5K
Browns vs. Saints
same side · consensus Saints
——Browns $88Browns $2.4K
Spread: Lions (-14.5)
same side · consensus Dolphins
——Dolphins $1.6KDolphins $3