Cowboys vs. Colts

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Cowboys (36%) · Cowboys at 70¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 8

Cowboys70¢Colts30¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Cowboys

Consensus Traders

Cowboys 36%

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

$17.2

Smart Money Entry

69¢ → 69.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralCowboys at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cowboys

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Cowboys70%

Colts31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cowboys4 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares4,785

Combined PnL+$23.97

Colts7 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,937

Combined PnL-$6.77

Cowboys — 36%Colts — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Late

64h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Cowboys. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Cowboys) and the top 1000 (10 on Colts) disagree here.

whaleColts 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpColts 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrCowboys 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedCowboys 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Colts 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Cowboysavg 69¢	$2.6K	$1.8K	+$13.07	58% 46317-33437 (79754)
DA darkumbreon88	Cowboysavg 69¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$9.14	64% 1955-1087 (3042)
RA rabbitfoot1CTR	Coltsavg 31¢	$2.7K	$817.38	-$13.4	54% 1220-1041 (2261)
DV dv-pmCTR	Coltsavg 30.6¢	$269.36	$268.22	+$4.4	49% 3323-3512 (6835)
38 38791873984189	Cowboysavg 69¢	$363.22	$242.02	+$1.74	48% 60745-65398 (126143)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Coltsavg 30¢	$279.7	$85.31	+$1.4	51% 25600-24316 (49916)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Coltsavg 30¢	$20.52	$20.86	+$0.34	64% 9839-5498 (15337)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Coltsavg 29¢	$30.13	$10.41	+$0.45	49% 4461-4659 (9120)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Cowboysavg 69¢	$2.23	$2.23	+$0.02	51% 4750-4616 (9366)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Coltsavg 29¢	$0.41	$0.43	+$0.02	58% 20277-14893 (35170)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Coltsavg 29¢	$0.41	$0.43	+$0.02	54% 12041-10442 (22483)

VeryLucky888

Cowboys

Invested

$2,606.72

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$13.07

Record

58%

46317-33437 (79754)

darkumbreon88

Cowboys

Invested

$1,261.02

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$9.14

Record

64%

1955-1087 (3042)

rabbitfoot1CTR

Colts

Invested

$2,679.94

Value

$817.38

PnL

-$13.4

Record

54%

1220-1041 (2261)

dv-pmCTR

Colts

Invested

$269.36

Value

$268.22

PnL

+$4.4

Record

49%

3323-3512 (6835)

38791873984189

Cowboys

Invested

$363.22

Value

$242.02

PnL

+$1.74

Record

48%

60745-65398 (126143)

FlaznorpCTR

Colts

Invested

$279.7

Value

$85.31

PnL

+$1.4

Record

51%

25600-24316 (49916)

NM-PCTR<$100

Colts

Invested

$20.52

Value

$20.86

PnL

+$0.34

Record

64%

9839-5498 (15337)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Colts

Invested

$30.13

Value

$10.41

PnL

+$0.45

Record

49%

4461-4659 (9120)

6512395314597884<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$2.23

Value

$2.23

PnL

+$0.02

Record

51%

4750-4616 (9366)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Colts

Invested

$0.41

Value

$0.43

PnL

+$0.02

Record

58%

20277-14893 (35170)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Colts

Invested

$0.41

Value

$0.43

PnL

+$0.02

Record

54%

12041-10442 (22483)

Research grade

NeutralCowboys at 70%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Cowboys

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Late

64h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Cowboys. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Cowboys) and the top 1000 (10 on Colts) disagree here.

whaleColts 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpColts 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrCowboys 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedCowboys 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Colts 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cowboys wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.