Spread: Giants (-5.5)

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Eagles (62%) · Eagles at 63¢ · $63K held · ended Nov 8

Giants38¢Eagles62¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Eagles

Consensus Traders

Eagles 62%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$63.1K

Combined PnL

-$847.22

Smart Money Entry

59.1¢ → 62.5¢

+6% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralEagles at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Eagles

8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Giants38%

Eagles63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Giants5 traders

Total Value$23.8K

Total Shares61,750

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Eagles8 traders

Total Value$35.2K

Total Shares58,113

Combined PnL+$678

Giants — 38%Eagles — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on Eagles. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleEagles 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrEagles 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedEagles 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Eagles 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormakeCTR	Giantsavg 41¢	$25.1K	$23.6K	$-1.5K	52% 5499-5133 (10632)
HO HomeRunHazard	Eaglesavg 59.1¢	$17.8K	$18.2K	+$407.66	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
BA Bagwell306	Eaglesavg 59¢	$6.1K	$6.0K	-$49.98	48% 4748-5241 (9989)
0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492	Eaglesavg 59¢	$9.6K	$5.8K	+$144.43	49% 807-840 (1647)
SU SunlineTickerARB<$100	Giantsavg 41¢	$4.2K	$4.1K	-$19.94	54% 5358-4572 (9930)
└ Eagles leg	Eaglesavg 59¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$17.34
└ Giants leg	Giantsavg 41¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$37.28
BI biying88888	Eaglesavg 59.7¢	$2.7K	$2.9K	+$113.45	48% 219-239 (458)
VeryLucky888	Eaglesavg 58¢	$2.4K	$1.4K	+$59.19	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
IC ic4cream	Eaglesavg 59¢	$293.41	$291.01	-$2.4	56% 2872-2262 (5134)
nigiri99	Eaglesavg 59¢	$262.55	$269.23	+$6.68	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
BA Bayupati	Eaglesavg 61.8¢	$212.97	$211.95	-$1.02	49% 280-287 (567)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Giantsavg 39¢	$155.99	$153.99	-$2	51% 2075-2021 (4096)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Giantsavg 39.1¢	$53.88	$21.28	+$0.19	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Giantsavg 40.6¢	$26	$10.27	-$0.28	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Giantsavg 39¢	$7.8	$7.7	-$0.1	50% 5167-5068 (10235)

takeormakeCTR

Giants

Invested

$25,104.22

Value

$23.6K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

52%

5499-5133 (10632)

HomeRunHazard

Eagles

Invested

$17,796.03

Value

$18.2K

PnL

+$407.66

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

Bagwell306

Eagles

Invested

$6,098.77

Value

$6.0K

PnL

-$49.98

Record

48%

4748-5241 (9989)

0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492

Eagles

Invested

$9,628.11

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$144.43

Record

49%

807-840 (1647)

SunlineTickerARB<$100

Giants

Invested

$4,155.67

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$19.94

Record

54%

5358-4572 (9930)

Both legs:

Eagles$2,045.1859¢+$17.34

Giants$2,113.5441¢-$37.28

biying88888

Eagles

Invested

$2,676.91

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$113.45

Record

48%

219-239 (458)

VeryLucky888

Eagles

Invested

$2,367.77

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$59.19

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

ic4cream

Eagles

Invested

$293.41

Value

$291.01

PnL

-$2.4

Record

56%

2872-2262 (5134)

nigiri99

Eagles

Invested

$262.55

Value

$269.23

PnL

+$6.68

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

Bayupati

Eagles

Invested

$212.97

Value

$211.95

PnL

-$1.02

Record

49%

280-287 (567)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Giants

Invested

$155.99

Value

$153.99

PnL

-$2

Record

51%

2075-2021 (4096)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Giants

Invested

$53.88

Value

$21.28

PnL

+$0.19

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Giants

Invested

$26

Value

$10.27

PnL

-$0.28

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Giants

Invested

$7.8

Value

$7.7

PnL

-$0.1

Record

50%

5167-5068 (10235)

Research grade

NeutralEagles at 63%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Eagles

8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on Eagles. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleEagles 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrEagles 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedEagles 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Eagles 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Eagles wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.