Spread: Cowboys (-4.5)

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Colts (58%) · Colts at 52¢ · $31K held · ends Nov 8

Cowboys49¢Colts51¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Colts

Consensus Traders

Colts 58%

Total Value

$30.9K

Combined PnL

$227.98

Smart Money Entry

50.1¢ → 51.5¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralColts at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Colts

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cowboys49%

Colts52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cowboys5 traders

Total Value$13.9K

Total Shares28,125

Combined PnL-$144.98

Colts7 traders

Total Value$17.0K

Total Shares33,281

Combined PnL+$372.96

Cowboys — 42%Colts — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Colts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleColts 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrCowboys 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Colts 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99CTR	Cowboysavg 50¢	$13.4K	$13.3K	-$133.94	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
JU justwins	Coltsavg 50¢	$10.0K	$10.3K	+$299.5	49% 180-185 (365)
OM omnibus-076daa	Coltsavg 51¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	-$28.35	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
VeryLucky888	Coltsavg 50¢	$5.0K	$2.7K	+$73.07	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Coltsavg 48¢	$480	$500	+$15	48% 405-446 (851)
38 38791873984189CTR	Cowboysavg 51¢	$499.59	$490.08	-$9.51	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
HO HomeRunHazard	Coltsavg 49.7¢	$477.6	$480	+$4.8	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Cowboysavg 49¢	$144.69	$143.22	-$1.48	64% 2043-1136 (3179)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Coltsavg 47¢	$70.17	$74.65	+$4.48	53% 12855-11522 (24377)
DV dv-pm<$100	Coltsavg 47.7¢	$71.14	$74.5	+$4.47	48% 3364-3590 (6954)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Cowboysavg 49¢	$21.93	$22.16	+$0.22	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Cowboysavg 49.7¢	$10.94	$10.67	-$0.27	54% 10485-8797 (19282)

nigiri99CTR

Cowboys

Invested

$13,394.5

Value

$13.3K

PnL

-$133.94

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

justwins

Colts

Invested

$9,983.24

Value

$10.3K

PnL

+$299.5

Record

49%

180-185 (365)

omnibus-076daa

Colts

Invested

$2,892.07

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$28.35

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

VeryLucky888

Colts

Invested

$5,000

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$73.07

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

Multicoloured-Serf

Colts

Invested

$480

Value

$500

PnL

+$15

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

38791873984189CTR

Cowboys

Invested

$499.59

Value

$490.08

PnL

-$9.51

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

HomeRunHazard

Colts

Invested

$477.6

Value

$480

PnL

+$4.8

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

darkumbreon88CTR

Cowboys

Invested

$144.69

Value

$143.22

PnL

-$1.48

Record

64%

2043-1136 (3179)

BoomLaLa<$100

Colts

Invested

$70.17

Value

$74.65

PnL

+$4.48

Record

53%

12855-11522 (24377)

dv-pm<$100

Colts

Invested

$71.14

Value

$74.5

PnL

+$4.47

Record

48%

3364-3590 (6954)

GC-PCTR<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$21.93

Value

$22.16

PnL

+$0.22

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$10.94

Value

$10.67

PnL

-$0.27

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Research grade

NeutralColts at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Colts

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Colts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleColts 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrCowboys 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Colts 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Colts wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.