Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Browns, while the market favors Saints (61%). 11 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Browns vs. Saints

11 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Browns (79%) · Browns at 40¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 8

Browns40¢Saints60¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Browns

Consensus Traders

Browns 79%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.6K

Combined PnL

$-1.7K

Smart Money Entry

46.2¢ → 39.5¢

-14% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralBrowns at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Browns

11 of 14 top traders (79%)Underdog side (market favors Saints 61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Browns40%

Saints61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Browns11 traders

Total Value$9.8K

Total Shares24,588

Combined PnL$-1.8K

Saints3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,665

Combined PnL+$170.65

Browns — 79%Saints — 21%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Late

55h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

79% of non-arb traders are on Browns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBrowns 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpBrowns 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrBrowns 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedBrowns 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Browns 77% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Brownsavg 47¢	$5.1K	$4.3K	-$792.25	54% 18232-15346 (33578)
MA MAGATheeStallionCTR	Brownsavg 44.9¢	$3.0K	$2.6K	-$358.48	58% 284-204 (488)
VeryLucky888CTR	Brownsavg 46.4¢	$5.3K	$1.9K	-$542.87	58% 46729-33688 (80417)
HE Herdonia	Saintsavg 53.9¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$150.26	51% 3806-3729 (7535)
NM NM-PCTR	Brownsavg 47¢	$499.07	$424.48	-$69.58	64% 9930-5532 (15462)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Saintsavg 53.9¢	$188.21	$204.09	+$16.53	51% 4772-4633 (9405)
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 53.9¢	$136.86	$153.48	+$16.62
└ Browns leg	Brownsavg 39.6¢	$51.35	$50.61	-$0.09
SN SnakeBall	Saintsavg 55¢	$184.36	$202.8	+$18.44	51% 37681-36912 (74593)
GC GC-PCTR	Brownsavg 47¢	$235	$195	-$37.5	64% 9971-5600 (15571)
BO BoomLaLaCTR	Brownsavg 39¢	$118.41	$118.41	+$1.52	53% 12487-11218 (23705)
IC ic4creamCTR	Brownsavg 43.7¢	$110.54	$98.57	-$8.85	56% 2771-2186 (4957)
38 38791873984189CTR	Brownsavg 45.7¢	$693.23	$57.7	-$35.04	48% 61256-66065 (127321)
GH ghorrock<$100	Saintsavg 56.1¢	$29.26	$31.22	+$1.95	58% 21279-15443 (36722)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Brownsavg 42¢	$25.2	$23.4	-$1.5	50% 8307-8363 (16670)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Brownsavg 43.7¢	$9.91	$8.84	-$0.79	48% 7398-7930 (15328)
PL pltrkr111CTR<$100	Brownsavg 39¢	$2.45	$2.48	+$0.03	54% 772-645 (1417)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Browns

Invested

$5,132.43

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$792.25

Record

54%

18232-15346 (33578)

MAGATheeStallionCTR

Browns

Invested

$2,999.69

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$358.48

Record

58%

284-204 (488)

VeryLucky888CTR

Browns

Invested

$5,290.19

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$542.87

Record

58%

46729-33688 (80417)

Herdonia

Saints

Invested

$1,242.03

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$150.26

Record

51%

3806-3729 (7535)

NM-PCTR

Browns

Invested

$499.07

Value

$424.48

PnL

-$69.58

Record

64%

9930-5532 (15462)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Saints

Invested

$188.21

Value

$204.09

PnL

+$16.53

Record

51%

4772-4633 (9405)

Both legs:

Saints$136.8653.9¢+$16.62

Browns$51.3539.6¢-$0.09

SnakeBall

Saints

Invested

$184.36

Value

$202.8

PnL

+$18.44

Record

51%

37681-36912 (74593)

GC-PCTR

Browns

Invested

$235

Value

$195

PnL

-$37.5

Record

64%

9971-5600 (15571)

BoomLaLaCTR

Browns

Invested

$118.41

Value

$118.41

PnL

+$1.52

Record

53%

12487-11218 (23705)

ic4creamCTR

Browns

Invested

$110.54

Value

$98.57

PnL

-$8.85

Record

56%

2771-2186 (4957)

38791873984189CTR

Browns

Invested

$693.23

Value

$57.7

PnL

-$35.04

Record

48%

61256-66065 (127321)

ghorrock<$100

Saints

Invested

$29.26

Value

$31.22

PnL

+$1.95

Record

58%

21279-15443 (36722)

RLWGCTR<$100

Browns

Invested

$25.2

Value

$23.4

PnL

-$1.5

Record

50%

8307-8363 (16670)

OddstormCTR<$100

Browns

Invested

$9.91

Value

$8.84

PnL

-$0.79

Record

48%

7398-7930 (15328)

pltrkr111CTR<$100

Browns

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.48

PnL

+$0.03

Record

54%

772-645 (1417)

Research grade

NeutralBrowns at 40%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Browns

11 of 14 top traders (79%)Underdog side (market favors Saints 61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Late

55h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

79% of non-arb traders are on Browns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBrowns 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpBrowns 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrBrowns 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedBrowns 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Browns 77% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Browns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.7%

39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$139.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

239.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.